We expect the economy to generate 155,000 new jobs in the January 2020 employment report, somewhat slower than the 176,000 monthly average observed in 2019. … READ MORE >
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Hospitality industry braces for the worst as coronavirus spreads
As the human and economic toll of the coronavirus continues to mount, the hospitality industry is bracing for the worst. On Jan. 30, the World Health Organization cautioned against non-essential travel to China after declaring the outbreak a public health emergency. Major airlines quickly responded, as British Airways, United, Delta … … READ MORE >
Key manufacturing index shows expansion in January, but may not be sustainable
The Institute for Supply Management on Monday said its purchasing managers’ index (PMI) increased to 50.9 in January against an expectation of 48.5, rising above 50 for the first time since July 2019, and from a four-year low of 47.8 in December. … READ MORE >
Economics of a global health crisis
Global economic markets’ reaction to China’s coronavirus has been severe, resulting in a significant safe haven move into U.S. government securities by international investors. Whether the virus has a lasting impact on the broader global economy depends largely on the ability of the world’s major governments to effectively deploy resources to contain the outbreak. … READ MORE >
U.S. Q4’19 GDP: slow and steady
The U.S. growth picture arrived spot on with the 2.1% economic consensus driven by solid but slowing personal consumption and strong government spending. The large drop in imports, along with the noticeable easing of spending in the fourth quarter, does denote some caution on the growth picture in light of growing domestic and global risks. … READ MORE >
Americans face housing affordability crisis as paltry inventory sends costs higher
The decline in housing numbers reported for December on Wednesday is tied to the dwindling available supply of housing for purchase. While low unemployment and modest wage growth are driving strong demand, housing inventory is lacking. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve brings dovish tint to statement as consumption downgraded
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee attempted to thread the needle in its January meeting by maintaining its existing policy rate while acknowledging moderating real consumption. … READ MORE >
Continued warnings or signs of bottoming out for industrial production and manufacturing
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator moved slightly lower in December, continuing a downward trend that began in the last months of 2018. Movement of the leading indicator has traditionally coincided with trends with industrial-sector activity. In this current cycle, the leading indicator has been propped up by a robust … … READ MORE >
Expect fourth quarter GDP to come in at 1.7%
The U.S. economy most likely expanded near a 1.7% output in the fourth quarter of 2019, near its long-term trend growth rate of 1.8% and just below the 2.1% consensus forecast. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve meeting suddenly becomes interesting as coronavirus spreads
What was shaping up as one of the most boring policy rate decisions in some time has suddenly gained a measure of uncertainty because of investor concern about the coronavirus. … READ MORE >