U.S. technology companies are continuing to explore finding vendors outside of China, shifting their supply chain and logistics to avoid fresh tariffs set to take effect in September, and the collateral damage caused by the volatile U.S.-China trade war. … READ MORE >
Blog
Retail sales stay hot, but for how long?
The July retail sales numbers released by the Commerce Department on Thursday continued to reinforce that the resilient consumer has kept the economy afloat amid trade tensions and an unstable economic environment outside of the United States. The question is, how long will it last? … READ MORE >
US data deluge: cold cup of coffee on a sunny summer day
This morning’s data deluge provided a perfect snapshot of the U.S. economy at the current time. A robust consumer, driven by strong real compensation in the first quarter of the year, continued to prop up the American economy, even as the domestic manufacturing sector contracted by 0.5% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Administration delays tariffs on some Chinese goods ahead of holidays
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on Tuesday issued a notice stating that an additional planned 10% tariff set to take effect on Sept. 1 on many imports from China will be delayed on some of those products until Dec. 15. The move was expected to provide relief to U.S. retailers and consumers ahead of the critical holiday selling season. … READ MORE >
Low treasury rate is a boost for home builders, neutral for commercial real estate
Bonds have been declining in recent weeks following a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve and expectations of further cuts amid rising concerns over an impending recession. Recession concerns were escalated by the inversion of the U.S. and U.K. two- and 10-year yield curves and the fall of 30-year Treasury yields to 2.07%, a record low. While this trend in the bond market will likely drive down the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and translate to more purchasing power for home buyers, it will do little to juice the market for commercial real estate. … READ MORE >
Real negative yields signal business cycle nearing an end
The increasing probability that the U.S.-China trade and financial war will be a permanent feature of the global economic landscape is the catalyst for the inversion of the two-year-10-year Treasury yield curve on Wednesday. This inversion of that portion of the curve is the first since June 2007, which marked the start of the Great Recession. … READ MORE >
Low rate environment poses challenge for banks
The Fed recently cut its lending rate by 25 basis points and is expected to cut again later this year. Meanwhile, as longer-term rates continue to decline, banks will be faced with further pressure on their net interest margins. … READ MORE >
Health care jobs market remains tight, government data shows
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey released by the government last Tuesday underscored continued tightness in the health care jobs market through June. Health care organizations added 60,000 employees, after accounting for employee departures.Total job openings across the ecosystem increased by 10,000 to 1.217 million. … READ MORE >
For private equity funds, bigger is not always better
The rise of billion-dollar private equity buyout funds reflects the growing demand from large investors willing to write big checks. Interest rates remain historically low and, with additional rate cuts almost certain to come, investors continue to expect high returns. The larger the fund, so the thinking goes, the larger … … READ MORE >
Hedge fund performance may be tested—again
The average performance of the hedge fund sector since the Great Recession has lagged the returns of passive investments including broad-based equity index funds tied to the S&P 500 as well as exchange-traded funds. The underperformance of hedge funds, a risky but historically high-flying sector whose managers are compensated on their ability to outperform the markets, has resulted in net capital outflows and lower fees … READ MORE >