The RSM Brexit Stress Index declined to -0.08 from 0.41 the prior week due to the extension to Oct. 31 of the UK’s potential exit from the European Union. The index has made a two-standard-deviation move since early December, 2018; the trend implies broader financial conditions supportive of growth sorely needed in the UK economy, which has been stuck near a one-percent growth trend. … READ MORE >
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The Real Economy, April edition, is out now!
In this month’s issue of The Real Economy, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas assesses the rising risks of delayed trade agreements on middle market businesses and takes a closer look at the impact of steel and aluminum tariffs. … READ MORE >
Policy options to boost economy may be limited in a post-Brexit world (updated)
It remains to be seen whether Britain’s impending departure from the European Union will be “hard” or “soft.” Either way, it is time to start thinking about the post-Brexit economic environment. … READ MORE >
Innovation is now part of the insurance ratings mix
Innovation appears to have reached the risk-averse insurance industry. A few weeks ago A.M. Best issued a press release seeking comment on draft criteria for scoring and assessing innovation at the insurance companies it rates. It could lead to an innovation ratings system. … READ MORE >
RSM’s Brusuelas tells CNBC less than zero chance of Fed rate hike in 2019
RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas on Tuesday discussed the Federal Reserve’s economic policy plan for 2019 with CNBC’s Steve Liesman. Brusuelas says there’s a less than zero chance the Fed will raise rates in the remainder of the year. … READ MORE >
RSM’s Joe Brusuelas talks GDP and economic outlook with Bloomberg radio
Despite a slowing economy, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas tells Bloomberg radio that “a recession is just not in the cards this year” unless the administration or the Federal Reserve “makes a major mistake.” … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases on promise of soft departure from EU
Probability for a hard Brexit is falling, data from RSM’s proprietary Brexit Stress Index shows. The index eased to .41 from .71. … READ MORE >
Economic risk tied to closing the U.S.-Mexico border
A sustained hard closure of the U.S. border with Mexico would trigger a recession in both the United States and Mexico within six months. The automotive sector, in particular, is vulnerable. … READ MORE >
March jobs report: Payrolls rise, but wage growth cools
The U.S. March employment report should allay fears of a 2019 recession as the unemployment rate held at 3.8 percent and the economy generated 196,000 new jobs on top of an upward revision of 13,000 to the February estimate, bringing the total change in employment to 209,000. … READ MORE >
Section 232 automotive tariffs and their impact on Europe
Under section 232 of The Trade Expansion Act of 1962, The Trump administration has the authority to impose tariffs on automotive imports from the UK, the European Union and Asia. RSM’s chief economist discusses their impact on the European economy. … READ MORE >