While maintaining the overnight rate at 1.75% would appear to be prudent at the very least, we would argue that the Bank of Canada should strongly consider cutting rates in the near term. … READ MORE >
Canada
Canada added 35,200 jobs in December, exceeding estimates
The Canadian economy added 35,200 jobs in December, significantly greater than the 25,000 expected by economists. This partially offsets the 71,000 job losses in November’s Statistics Canada labor market survey. The unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to reach 5.6%, near the historic low of 5.5% last recorded in October of last year. … READ MORE >
As global economy slows, populism looms as long-term threat
The global economy has been buffeted recently by trade tensions between United States and China and slowing growth. But a greater risk looms around the world in the form of rising populism that threatens to unravel the postwar economic order, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. … READ MORE >
Canadian election results will test government spending
Canadians returned Justin Trudeau’s Liberals to power on Monday, but fell short of securing a majority, in what some commentators are regarding as a “strong minority government.” Fiscal policy will become increasingly important in the short term. … READ MORE >
Second edition of The Real Economy, Canada focuses on digital transformation, other positives
RSM Canada on Wednesday released the second issue of The Real Economy, Canada. The publication explores the impact of positive economic trends such as Canada’s burgeoning digital economy against the backdrop of a global slowdown in growth, North American trade disruptions and other stresses to the economy. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy and the path of interest rates: Fed funds rate to decline by 50 basis points in 2019
Based on recent economic data and policy risk around deteriorating global trade conditions, we now expect the Federal Reserve to reduce the policy rate to a range of 1.75 to 2 percent from 2.25 to 2.5 percent by the end of 2019. … READ MORE >
Tech is taking hold in Canada–The Real Economy, Canada has the story
Either by federal and local government promotion of technology or the invisible hand of capitalism, technology has taken hold in cities throughout Canada. The knock-on benefits to local economies as tech industries establish footholds include: the revitalization of city life; increased tax revenue that can be applied to improvements in infrastructure; increased demand for better education and cultural facilities; and demographic shifts to complement the existing labor force. … READ MORE >
Wholesale gasoline prices point to 8% rise in retail costs in time for summer holidays
U.S. consumers are likely to feel a modest jolt in commuting costs, as wholesale gasoline futures now point to an 8 percent rise in retail gasoline prices in coming days, with risk of a much more pronounced increase to follow.The surge is due to non-market derived pricing action caused by a recent policy shift from Washington on waivers around imports of Iranian oil. … READ MORE >
RSM offers a new index to measure Canadian financial conditions
RSM Canada has developed a quarterly index of Canadian financial conditions, using marketassessments of risk and accommodation as a proxy for lending and borrowing attitudes. … READ MORE >
RSM launches Canadian edition of The Real Economy
In the inaugural issue of The Real Economy, Canada, RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas closely examines the primary drivers of growth for 2019, which include modest consumer spending, government expenditures, and an economy bolstered by an increase in business investment. … READ MORE >