There is no denying it: Canada is experiencing a historic labour shortage. The job market has been running hot for months, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.9%, the lowest on record. The pandemic and subsequent reopening have been the catalyst. At the onset of the pandemic, workers were laid ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus
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Updated FOMC call: Fed to hike policy rate by 75 basis points
The economist John Maynard Keynes once famously quipped, “When the facts change, I change my mind.” And so it goes ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy meeting this week. Based on movements inside the rate markets, quickly changing inflation expectations and a rattled investor class, we ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: 50-basis-point hikes through September
We expect that the Federal Open Market Committee this week will lift the federal funds policy rate by 50 basis points to a range between 1.25% and 1.5%, which the market has already priced in and should be of little surprise to investors, the public or other policymakers. What is of more interest is ... READ MORE >
Canada’s merchandise trade growth slows
After two consecutive months of strong growth, Canada’s exports leveled off in April while imports rose slightly, netting a surplus of CA$1.5 billion. While imports grew by 1.9% and exports were up by 0.6% in nominal terms, a closer look reveals that the increase came solely from rising prices, as ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Consumer confidence falls in May
Consumer confidence in the United States slid to a three-month low in May amid sticky inflation and a decline in job availability. With both factors likely to persist, we expect confidence to remain on a rocky path over the next couple of months. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index inched ... READ MORE >
Personal spending and trade improved in April as inflation eased
American consumers continued to spend more in April as inflation showed signs of relief. The combination of higher incomes, excess savings and lower energy prices helped to alleviate some of the recent recession concerns. On top of that, the advanced goods trade deficit improved significantly on ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims show signs of bottoming out
New filings for jobless benefits last week inched down as a tight labor market kept layoffs below pre-pandemic levels. There were 210,000 new filings for the week ending May 21, down 8,000 from the week before, according to Labor Department data released Thursday . The weekly average pre-pandemic in ... READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index: Risk aversion returns
Financial conditions in the United States deteriorated again in May after a pause in late April. The recent selloff across equity markets is indicative of the policy shift at the Federal Reserve, which intends to tighten financial conditions to achieve price stability. While we continue to make the ... READ MORE >
Rising inflation eases but Canada’s housing remains a concern
April brought a hint that inflation could soon peak in Canada. The Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 6.8%, a slight increase from March, while all measures of core inflation continued to rise, according to data from Statistics Canada released on Wednesday. On a monthly basis, the increase ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Industrial production hits record
Industrial production set another record in April, defying recession concerns in equity and fixed-income markets. The Federal Reserve's index for industrial production volume rose by 0.8%, the fourth consecutive month of strong expansion, the report showed. All major industries posted gains, a sign of ... READ MORE >