The Real Economy Blog

Coronavirus

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A bumpy path toward a net-zero future

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As world energy leaders prepare to kick off a major United Nations conference on climate change on Sunday, the global energy crunch has added a new wrinkle to their ambitions: Nations, to keep their economies on track, are turning back to high-emissions coal as natural gas falls into short supply. But as severe as the energy squeeze has become, it is ... READ MORE >

GDP preview: Look for 2.9% growth in third quarter

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Economic growth in the third quarter will capture the impact of the delta variant on the economy as disruptions to supply chains and rising inflation have dampened household consumption and fixed investment by businesses. We expect that U.S. gross domestic product in the third quarter will arrive at 2.9%, less than half of the better than 6% pace of ... READ MORE >

Inflation in Canada persists amid shortages

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Inflation is proving to be persistent in Canada, with the Consumer Price Index increasing at an annual pace of 4.4% in September amid shortages of workers and supplies. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, the index rose by a more moderate 3.3% on a year-over-year basis, but it was still the fastest rate since 2003, according to data ... READ MORE >

Chart of the day: Consumer sentiment eases

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The headline consumer sentiment index inched down to 71.4 in October from 72.8 in September because of an uptick in short-term inflation expectations and higher gas prices, according to data released by the University of Michigan on Friday. At the same time, consumer expectations for inflation in the next 12 months rose to 4.8% from 4.6%, which suggests ... READ MORE >

Retail sales defied expectations, continuing to rise in September

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Retail sales defied expectations in September, rising in back-to-back months and highlighting the resilience in consumer spending amid supply shortages and the surge of the delta variant. Such strong sales numbers helped to offset some of the impact from rising prices in the Consumer Price Index for September released earlier this week. We continued to ... READ MORE >

Chart of the day: Producer Price Index slowed for second month

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A day after the Labor Department reported that inflation for consumers had remained stubbornly high in September, the department reported that prices paid by sellers decelerated for the second month in a row. The headline Producer Price Index (PPI) eased to a 0.5% gain on a month-over-month basis, from a 0.7% monthly increase in August, while the core ... READ MORE >

Initial jobless claims hit a pandemic low

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In another sign of the continuing tight labor market, new jobless claims hit a pandemic low at 290,000 for the week ending Oct. 9, following an upwardly revised reading of 329,000 in the previous week. This significant drop continues to highlight a labor market in which demand for labor has been the main driver as businesses scramble to find workers and ... READ MORE >

Job openings eased as quits hit a record

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Demand for labor remained strong as job openings ebbed to 10.4 million in August following a record in July, which was revised upwardly to 11.1 million, according to Labor Department data released on Tuesday. Job hires declined in back-to-back months, to 6.3 million from the recent high of 6.8 million in June, as the availability of workers continued to ... READ MORE >