The Real Economy Blog

Coronavirus

Please visit RSM’s Coronavirus Resource Center for business insights on how to mitigate risks related to the outbreak and tips to plan accordingly.

RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index rises for second month in a row

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The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index rose for the second month in a row in September as economic conditions continued to improve. The index, which is based on surveys of manufacturing activity and sentiment by regional Federal Reserve banks, came in at 0.7 standard deviations above expectations, up from 0.4 standard deviations recorded in August. The ... READ MORE >

CHART OF THE DAY: Consumer confidence bounces back

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After hitting a six-year low in August, consumer confidence firmly beat expectations and rebounded in September. The Conference Board, a think tank, reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose to 101.8 — a jump from 86.3 in August — and surpassed analysts’ forecasts of a slight increase. Confidence was much higher among those earning ... READ MORE >

CHART OF THE DAY: Junk bonds are the canary in the coal mine

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The recent surge in coronavirus infections is causing renewed concerns about economic growth and is likely exerting an indirect effect on the bond market, increasing the yield on low-rated/high-yield corporate bonds relative to the guaranteed yield of U.S. Treasury bonds. When the market becomes concerned about the growth and viability of ... READ MORE >

Managed care organizations weather the coronavirus storm

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It’s no mystery that major parts of the health care sector took a significant hit to the bottom line this year as hospitals and other providers postponed elective procedures to make way for the influx of coronavirus patients. But one area of the health care sector -- managed care organizations -- has weathered the storm quite well. Generally, many managed ... READ MORE >

Tracking the spread of coronavirus: Prelude to the cooler months

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There has been a 20% increase in the number of states reporting a rise in coronavirus cases since a week ago – an unfortunate but not unexpected trend. We are entering the colder months – when infections are expected to rise as people move inside – and we have yet to lower the rate of infection to the insignificant levels that might allow for the return ... READ MORE >

CHART OF THE DAY: New home sales continue to surge

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Sales of new homes have continued to reach new heights, increasing by 4.8% to a seasonally adjusted rate of a little more than 1 million for August – the first time new home sales had eclipsed that mark since 2006. Compared to the same period a year earlier, sales surged 43.2%, according to data released from the U.S. Census Bureau on ... READ MORE >

CHART OF THE DAY: Manufacturers signaled acceleration in September

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Manufacturers in September reported the fastest improvement in operating conditions since January 2019, according to the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index released by IHS Markit on Wednesday. The index posted a reading of 53.5 in September, up from 53.1 in August. This month’s reading was ahead of economists’ forecasts, which called for the ... READ MORE >

CHART OF THE DAY: As housing market heats up, inventory shrivels

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Existing home sales in August topped 6 million for the first time since 2006 as big-city renters continued to flock to the suburbs for more space, including a home office and a yard to accommodate their new normal. Meanwhile, existing homeowners are hesitant to put their houses on the market, given uncertainty around the coronavirus pandemic and fears ... READ MORE >

In the long run, U.S. needs a productivity miracle

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The Congressional Budget Office this week published its long-term budget outlook for 2020. Not surprisingly, its forecast of a 107% debt-to-GDP ratio in 2023 rising to 195% in 2050 garnered all of the attention. But beneath the headline are significant policy challenges facing the U.S. economy. Once one looks at the baseline assumptions, it’s clear ... READ MORE >