Job openings and factory orders came in lower than expected on Tuesday, continuing to show signs of softening economic demand that should work in the Federal Reserve's favor in fighting inflation. When the new data is combined with softer economic data released recently, the risk of a ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus
Back-to-normal supply chain fuels disinflation tailwind
Supply chains in the United States continued to recover in December, remaining at the pre-COVID level for the sixth straight month as most of the damage from the pandemic has now faded, according to the RSM US Supply Chain Index. The recovery in supply chains has been one of the most important factors ... READ MORE >
The pandemic response: Assessing the Main Street Lending Program
This is the second article in a series examining major economic policy responses to the pandemic that targeted small and midsize businesses. The first article looks at the Paycheck Protection Program, and the third offers policy recommendations for responding to future crises. The inability of small ... READ MORE >
The pandemic response: Assessing the Paycheck Protection Program
This is the first article in a series this week examining major economic policy responses to the pandemic that targeted small and midsize businesses. The second article will look at the Main Street Lending Program, and the third will offer policy recommendations for responding to future ... READ MORE >
Immigration is key to solving Canada’s labour shortage
There is no denying it: Canada is experiencing a historic labour shortage. The job market has been running hot for months, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.9%, the lowest on record. The pandemic and subsequent reopening have been the catalyst. At the onset of the pandemic, workers were laid ... READ MORE >
Updated FOMC call: Fed to hike policy rate by 75 basis points
The economist John Maynard Keynes once famously quipped, “When the facts change, I change my mind.” And so it goes ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy meeting this week. Based on movements inside the rate markets, quickly changing inflation expectations and a rattled investor class, we ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: 50-basis-point hikes through September
We expect that the Federal Open Market Committee this week will lift the federal funds policy rate by 50 basis points to a range between 1.25% and 1.5%, which the market has already priced in and should be of little surprise to investors, the public or other policymakers. What is of more interest is ... READ MORE >
Canada’s merchandise trade growth slows
After two consecutive months of strong growth, Canada’s exports leveled off in April while imports rose slightly, netting a surplus of CA$1.5 billion. While imports grew by 1.9% and exports were up by 0.6% in nominal terms, a closer look reveals that the increase came solely from rising prices, as ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Consumer confidence falls in May
Consumer confidence in the United States slid to a three-month low in May amid sticky inflation and a decline in job availability. With both factors likely to persist, we expect confidence to remain on a rocky path over the next couple of months. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index inched ... READ MORE >
Personal spending and trade improved in April as inflation eased
American consumers continued to spend more in April as inflation showed signs of relief. The combination of higher incomes, excess savings and lower energy prices helped to alleviate some of the recent recession concerns. On top of that, the advanced goods trade deficit improved significantly on ... READ MORE >