We expect the U.S. economy to shed 7.8 million jobs and the unemployment rate to reach 21.5% when the May U.S. employment estimate is released on Friday. To put this in the proper context, the near real-time data implies that greater than 40 million people have lost employment and income in less than three months, with 16.6 million people filing for ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus
Please visit RSM’s Coronavirus Resource Center for business insights on how to mitigate risks related to the outbreak and tips to plan accordingly.
What registered investment advisers can expect from the SEC in a changed economy
Even as the coronavirus disrupts many conventions and traditions of the financial services industry, one regulatory ritual has continued, albeit in digital form: the Securities and Exchange Commission’s compliance examinations with registered investment advisers. These examinations, which are now conducted virtually by the SEC’s Office of Compliance ... READ MORE >
Latest ISM manufacturing data shows signs of stabilization
The Institute for Supply Management index, a closely watched measure of U.S. manufacturing activity, rose in May for the first time since January, hinting that activity is beginning to stabilize following huge market disruptions created by the COVID-19 pandemic. The index improved to 43.1 in May from an 11-year low of 41.5 in April. The upturn was ... READ MORE >
Tech jobs have not been spared in the pandemic, but growth of remote work helps some
Before COVID-19, unemployment in the technology sector was at a five-decade low and was far lower than the overall U.S. unemployment rate. Though unemployment has risen for some parts of the technology sector as the pandemic has gripped the country, companies are still hiring for other roles. Job postings for web developers and applications software ... READ MORE >
California: A test case for reopening the New York metropolitan area
California is now in Stage 2 of its reopening program from the coronavirus lockdown. The crowds at Los Angeles beaches and the rise in newly reported cases in California should give the governors of New York and New Jersey something to consider as pressure mounts to reopen Jones Beach in New York and the Jersey shore. This will provide crucial ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector outlook less dire than last month, but still bleak
The RSM Manufacturing Outlook Index is now 4.2 standard deviations below normal conditions, an assessment of manufacturing conditions that is not as dire as last month, but dire nonetheless. Perhaps last month’s reading of about six standard deviations below normal was an indication from manufacturers that things couldn’t possibly get any worse. And ... READ MORE >
Bill would loosen restrictions in Paycheck Protection Program, making loan forgiveness easier
In a bipartisan vote, the House of Representatives passed the Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act on May 28, loosening some restrictions on borrowers and making it easier to qualify for loan forgiveness. Under the bill, businesses would be given more time to use the loans and greater flexibility to make needed expenditures and still qualify for ... READ MORE >
Main Street Lending Program details released; program expected to start soon
The Federal Reserve took an important step toward the launch of the long-awaited Main Street Lending Program (MSLP) on Wednesday with the release of details about how the program will work. Based on these new details, which were released by the Boston Federal Reserve, and recent comments from Eric Rosengren, its president, we believe the launch of the ... READ MORE >
First-quarter GDP is revised downward to a 5% contraction
A 10.5% decline in gross private investment was the primary driver of the downward revision to first-quarter gross domestic product to a 5% contraction, from a drop of 4.8%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Despite modest upward revisions to household consumption and robust residential investment, we are keeping our forecast of a 38.5% ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims: 40.7 million file first-time claims in 10 weeks
First-time jobless claims for the week ending May 23 increased by 2.123 million, bringing the total number of Americans who have filed for unemployment benefits to 40.76 million during the past 10 weeks. This data, released Thursday by the Department of Labor, strongly implies that the unemployment rate will most likely peak near 25% this year, with ... READ MORE >