The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose slightly to 71.0 in September, following a nine-year low of 70.3 in August as consumers felt the impact of the delta variant and rising prices. The report, released on Friday, signals a temporary shift in spending as consumers delay purchases of homes and big-ticket items like vehicles and ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus
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RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index remains solid as election approaches.
The Trudeau government goes into Monday’s election with momentum behind the prospects for economic growth and with the financial markets in a steady state. As the Bank of Canada noted in its Sept. 8 assessment, “Financial conditions remain highly accommodative.” But will the unintended consequences of that accommodation turn on itself? Our RSM Canada ... READ MORE >
As the delta variant spread, worried consumers went online to do their shopping
The strong retail sales for August were not only a welcome surprise for retailers after months of decline, but they also showed the enduring impact of the pandemic as consumers relied less on human contact and increasingly shopped at home. Non-store spending—which includes spending at online retailers—led the overall 0.7% increase in August retail ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims rise in the wake of Hurricane Ida
The economic impact of Hurricane Ida was evident in the most recent initial jobless claims data, which rose to 332,000 for the week ending Sept. 11. There were noticeable increases in first-time claims, as one would expect, in New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Louisiana and Alabama, according to government data released on Thursday. Claims actually ... READ MORE >
Import prices dropped below expectation in August, but prices from Asia remained hot
The U.S. import price index decreased by 0.3% in August, the first decline since October 2020, following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in July, while the core index, which excludes petroleum, fell by 0.1%, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The monthly decline also contributed to the smallest 12-month increase in ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Small business optimism inched up in August, yet hiring struggles remained
The small business optimism index increased slightly to 100.1 in August, rising by 0.4 points over July, even as employers struggled to fill job openings. Half of the firms surveyed by the National Federation of Independent Business reported positions that they could not fill in the current period, much higher than the historical average of 22% over the ... READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index: Inflation eased in August, but it’s too soon to declare victory
Score a victory for team transitory in the inflation wars. The Consumer Price Index eased in August, reaffirming our view that inflation most likely formed a peak in the summer following the historic supply shock that defined pandemic economics starting last year. Top-line inflation eased to 5.3% on a year-ago basis, while increasing by a much more ... READ MORE >
Global supply chain disruptions accelerate, presenting a challenge to the middle market
Fragile global supply chains are facing another round of port closures, factory shutdowns, production halts and labor shortages as the delta variant spreads. These disruptions will almost certainly delay the return of full production in the global economy until the middle of next year and create the conditions for further price volatility until the ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: How the enhanced child tax credit expands outlays on food, shelter and books
A survey by the U.S. Census Bureau adds to the argument that direct payments to households are the most efficient way to help families in need. The recent innovation in the child tax credit—taking half of it and turning it into six lump-sum payments over the course of a year—has yielded some interesting and economically relevant information. The ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Producer Price Index decelerated in August
The headline Producer Price Index increased by 0.7% in August, a slower pace than the 1.0% monthly gains in June and July, while the core index excluding food and energy rose by 0.6%, according to government data released Friday. The lower numbers indicate that inflation, at least from the sellers' perspective, has most likely passed its summer ... READ MORE >