The Real Economy Blog

Coronavirus

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Chart of the day: U.S. consumer confidence inches down

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Consumer confidence inched down in November to 109.5, the lowest since March, as inflation continued to take its toll, according to a report from the Conference Board on Tuesday. Now, with the emergence of the omicron variant of the coronavirus, which is not reflected in the November data, consumer confidence is likely to come under even more ... READ MORE >

Canada’s GDP rose at 5.4% annual rate as economy reopened

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Canada’s gross domestic product grew by a strong 5.4% in the third quarter on an annual basis and by 1.3% from the previous quarter as spending on in-person services rose, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Tuesday. Household spending on semi-durable goods and on services had the biggest annual increases of 68.7% and 27.8%, ... READ MORE >

Trade in 2022: Supply chain challenges and policy implications

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Nearly two years after the pandemic shut down the global economy, policymakers are facing a new challenge as global supply chain bottlenecks push up inflation and hamper economic growth. How countries confront these disruptions will have a big impact on economic growth in the coming year. We expect that 2022 will be a year of major policy shifts in ... READ MORE >

Pending home sales in October rebounded to highest in 2021

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Pending home sales rebounded by 7.5% in October following a small decline of 2.4% in September, continuing their rise from a recent low in April, according to new data on Monday from the National Association of Realtors. The sharp increase in contract signings month-over-month pointed to housing demand that has regained some momentum as buyers take ... READ MORE >

RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: November was a good month

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The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index in November reached its highest level since the spring, indicating a sustained economic recovery should the health crisis not get in the way. Despite snarled global supply chains that have made obtaining goods challenging, the domestic manufacturing sector continues to steam ahead. The RSM manufacturing index ... READ MORE >

Chart of the day: A look at the strategic petroleum reserve

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The price of crude oil was already dropping by the time the Biden administration announced the coordinated effort among allies to release crude oil from their reserves. With roughly 1.05 billion barrels in reserve, some of which are used to meet basic demand each year during hurricanes or other periods of stress, the United States is not in a position to ... READ MORE >

The U.S. infrastructure package is a call to action for Canada

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The infrastructure package recently signed into law in the United States will lead to increasing productivity and innovation, but it also has the potential to widen the gap between the U.S. and Canadian economies. The $1.2 trillion package not only highlights the relative lack of investment in Canada, but it also comes just as the floods in British ... READ MORE >

Personal spending and income rose in October, beating expectations

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October's personal income and spending data released by the government on Wednesday gave more reasons to end the short Thanksgiving week on a good note. Personal income rose by 0.5% on the month, beating expectations of a 0.2% increase, while spending rose by a sharp 1.3% in October on a dollar basis. After adjusting for price changes, real spending ... READ MORE >

Wholesale gas futures point to decline in retail prices

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Following Tuesday’s announcement of the coordinated release of strategic oil reserves, policymakers and investors are focusing on the indirect—or some would say the actual— target of such an action: consumer retail gasoline prices. Based on the relationship between retail gasoline costs and wholesale gasoline prices, that cost for consumers is likely to ... READ MORE >