Canada lost 200,000 jobs in January as the omicron variant led to tightened restrictions across the country, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Friday. Unemployment rose for the first time in nine months by 0.5 percentage points to 6.5%. Workers who had to quarantine without ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus
U.S. January jobs report shows strong gains and significant upward revisions
The American labor market remained red hot in January and that strength will stimulate a discussion of faster interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve at its March meeting. The net increase of 467,000 in total employment on the back of a significant upward revision to the December estimate, from ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Jobless claims fall as omicron crests
Initial jobless claims fell in back-to-back weeks as the omicron variant's surge continued to fade in the second half of January, bringing last week's number closer to the pre-pandemic average, according to government data released Thursday. The headline number dropped to 238,000 on a seasonally ... READ MORE >
The Real Economy, Volume 86: How the Fed is managing its dual mandate
Download the full report. The Federal Reserve faces a difficult task in fulfilling the two mandates it has been given by Congress: Achieving full employment while keeping inflation in check. In this month’s issue of The Real Economy, our chief economist, Joe Brusuelas, examines how the Fed, with ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing slowed in January as labor market remained tight
Manufacturing slowed in January as demand moderated from a recent high in November, according to a report from the Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday. The top-line purchasing managers’ index fell to 57.6 on the month from 58.8 previously—the lowest since November 2020. Still, one should not ... READ MORE >
Acceleration of wage increases raises caution flag for policymakers
Friday’s report that the Employment Cost Index had increased at the fastest pace in decades confirmed that the Great Resignation is bolstering the bargaining power of workers. The wage component of the index has now accelerated from a 2.5% rate of increase in the third quarter of 2020 to 4.2% a ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Omicron’s dampening effect
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index receded again in January, providing another indication of the direct effect of the omicron variant on the business community and a sign of the eventual moderation of the post-crisis surge in growth. While the manufacturing sector continued to grow, the ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs preview: Stick a giant omicron asterisk on the January report
The omicron variant has almost surely created significant distortions in the American workforce that will become evident when the jobs report for January is released on Friday. Investors, policymakers and firm managers should essentially write off the report as a one-time set of noise that will not ... READ MORE >
Monetary and fiscal policy in a changing economy: Reflation, and the risks that remain
This is the last in a series of articles regarding monetary and fiscal policy as the economy restarts within a changing framework of labor force choices, automation and pricing. The first article examined the Fed’s challenge in meeting its mandate for full employment. The second looked at the Fed’s other ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Consumer confidence falls amid omicron fears
The consumer sentiment index inched down to 67.2 in January from 70.6 in December as concerns over the omicron variant's surge weighed on consumers both now and in the future, according to a report from the University of Michigan on Friday. The index—known for its strong dependence on gasoline ... READ MORE >