The Treasury bill market is pricing in a shortage of notes in November as the threat of a debt ceiling crisis grows. Despite the recent legislative passage of a 10-year infrastructure investment plan, Congress and the Biden administration are no closer to an agreement on lifting the debt ceiling. We ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus
Canada employment steady as more sectors return to pre-pandemic levels
Canada’s economy continued its gradual recovery as the unemployment rate fell to 6.7% in October, the fifth month of decline in a row, according to data released Friday by Statistics Canada. Canada added 31,200 jobs on the month, little changed from the previous month and a signal that the economy is ... READ MORE >
U.S. October jobs report: Hiring booms as unemployment falls to 4.6%
Traditionally after recessions, once the unemployment rate falls below 5%, workers on the sideline tend to begin trickling back into the workforce. The October U.S. employment report released on Friday was no exception, showing an increase of 531,000 jobs and a decline of roughly 255,000 in the jobless ... READ MORE >
Canada’s trade surplus widened amid microchip shortage
Canada’s merchandise trade balance had the fourth consecutive month of surplus in September as global supply chain bottlenecks debilitated the automotive industry, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Thursday. Although the surplus widened, the falling of both exports by 2.3% and imports ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims drop to pandemic low as labor market rebounds
New filings for jobless claims declined for the fifth consecutive month as labor shortages kept layoffs low. At the current pace, new jobless claims could reach their pre-pandemic level by the end of the year. Initial jobless claims declined to 269,000 for the week ending Oct. 30, following an ... READ MORE >
Fed slows asset purchases as it moves to end pandemic-era accommodation
The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that later this month it would start paring back its pandemic-era monetary accommodation even as it held its policy rate between zero and 25 basis points. This policy step, announced after the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, creates ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Service sector grew at record pace
The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index hit a record high in October at 66.7%, 4.8 percentage points higher than in September, confirming the recent shift in consumption from goods to services that will last until the end of the year. A reading above 49.2% indicates expansion. The surging overall ... READ MORE >
ADP private payrolls: Large companies continue to attract workers
The ADP estimate for nonfarm private employment in October continued to show an increase in net job gains, led by a sharp rise from small service-providing companies as the delta variant’s surge crested. Still, large companies with more than 1,000 employees continued to account for the biggest ... READ MORE >
RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index: An inflation tantrum?
Financial markets around the world are reacting to the rising risk of inflation and the prospect of policy responses by central banks, all of which have led to a modest easing in our RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index. The Bank of Canada has already halted its bond purchase plan, the Reserve ... READ MORE >
Enhanced child tax credit was a game-changer for families, and the economy
Even as the economy slowed in the third quarter as the delta variant took hold, that slowdown would have been far worse if not for the enhanced child tax credit that was introduced on July 15. By our estimate, the enhanced child tax credit, which provided direct payments to about 35 ... READ MORE >