Even as the Labor Department reported on Friday that the unemployment rate had fallen to 5.4%, it is probably an undercount. That’s not the intention, but instead stems from the long-held methodology of how the Labor Department determines who is in the labor force and who is not. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus
July employment report: Robust gains mark summer hiring peak
The U.S. economy is expanding in a robust manner and it should be of little surprise that hiring is on a tear, averaging 831,000 new jobs over the past three months as the service sector continues to gain pace. … READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index remains stout despite risk of virus resurgence
The RSM UK Financial Conditions Index stands just below one standard deviation above neutral, implying that conditions are ripe for a robust recovery of the British economy heading into the latter portion of the year and an economic expansion next year. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims still elevated at 385,000 as the economy expands
First-time jobless claims decreased by 15,000 to 385,000 for the week ending July 31 while continuing claims for the week ending July 24 stands at 2.9 million, according to government data released Thursday. … READ MORE >
Lack of inventory dampening auto sales
Supply chain constraints inside the global auto ecosystem have dampened overall sales as producers struggle to keep up with demand until advanced microchip production ramps up. … READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Education and service hiring to drive gains in July
We expect a net increase in total employment of 950,000 and a decline to 5.7% in the unemployment rate when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its jobs report on Friday. … READ MORE >
Honey, I shrunk the output gap: Four quarters of investment growth begin to heal the economy
The gap between the actual and potential gross domestic product narrowed dramatically during the second quarter of the year. Real GDP grew by more than 12% on a year-over-year basis while nominal GDP in current dollar terms grew at a nearly 17% yearly rate. … READ MORE >
Personal income, spending and savings are getting back to normal
Households are spending more and savings less, enjoying their summer and getting ready for school, as government data on personal income and spending released on Friday suggests. In short, households are getting back to normal. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims continue choppy descent
There remain 13.1 million people who are receiving some form of unemployment benefits. Of those, 3.2 million—or 25%—are receiving traditional unemployment benefits while 9.8 million—or 75%—are receiving some form of pandemic assistance set to expire on Sept. 5. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve policy and interest rates in 10 charts
Why the FOMC decided to maintain is accommodative monetary policies, as told in 10 charts. … READ MORE >