As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine takes a mounting human and economic toll, it also has the potential to threaten the food supply for millions of people who depend on agricultural commodities from those two countries. Russian and Ukrainian grain exports have plunged, leaving many countries scrambling ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus
Canada’s GDP rises, led by construction and trade
Canada’s gross domestic product in January increased modestly by 0.2% from December as the effects of the omicron variant paused growth in the services sector. The gain came entirely from goods-producing industries, which increased by 0.8%, while the services-producing industries saw no growth because ... READ MORE >
A key inflation gauge surged in February, dampening spending
The likelihood of a 50 basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in May increased on Thursday as the government reported that a key inflation gauge continued to surge in February. The data for the personal consumption expenditures price index came as another strong jobs report is expected on ... READ MORE >
Robust job openings data might accelerate Fed’s rate hikes
U.S. job openings in February came in blazing hot again at 11.3 million, which translated to 1.8 jobs available per unemployed worker, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. The new data will add more pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and cool the economy, and ... READ MORE >
What is the yield curve telling us?
Fears of an imminent recession are somewhat overblown. These fears are showing up in fixed-income markets, where investors are betting that the risk of a recession is rising as the economy absorbs a supply shock in the commodity and energy markets and as central banks increase interest rates. But ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Geopolitical tensions and possibility of a midcycle slowdown
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index increased in March but is showing signs of impending economic damage caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Those warning signs may be creating the conditions for a classic midcycle slowing in overall manufacturing sentiment and activity. Our index is a ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Pending home sales drop again in February
Pending home sales in February dipped for the fourth straight month as depleted inventory and rising mortgage rates dampened sales. The number of contracts signed for homes dropped 4.1% in February, following a 5.7% decline in January, according to data from the National Association of Realtors ... READ MORE >
Durable goods orders decline amid rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainties
Durable goods orders declined for the first time in five months in February because of geopolitical uncertainties and the anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike since 2018. With multiple rate increases expected this year, we expect investment spending for the entire year to ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Initial jobless claims lowest since 1969
New filings for U.S. jobless benefits last week dropped to the lowest point since 1969 as the tight labor market showed no sign of cooling. The number of new claims fell to 187,000 from 215,000 in the prior week, significantly below the pre-pandemic level in 2019 of 218,000, according to government ... READ MORE >
That ’70s Show: Lessons from the oil shortages of nearly 50 years ago
The pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have created the largest energy shock since 1979 and 1980. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the price of gasoline has increased roughly 20%, and in Los Angeles, the average price for regular unleaded gasoline is $5.98 per gallon, according to the ... READ MORE >