We expect that the initial estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the first quarter, which will be released Thursday, will show 6% growth, which is somewhat below the Bloomberg consensus of 6.8%. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus
Global economy to expand by 6% as vaccinations accelerate
The events that shook the global economy to its core last year – policy errors and a pandemic occurring at the end of a decade-long business cycle — finally appear to be bottoming out. … READ MORE >
Interest rate update: The changing yield landscape, in eight charts
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has moved to 1.55%, within 50 basis points of already low pre-pandemic rates. While anything near 1.60% is better than the 0.60% observed last year, we expect the yield to rise to 1.9% at the end of the year. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: You can’t always get what you want
The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision on the federal funds rate Wednesday will for the most part be a non-market-moving event, with the Federal Reserve looking to convey a consistent outlook on the direction of policy and rates. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Leading economic index points to robust expansion of industrial production
There are more signs of a recovery in the works. Both industrial production and the Conference Board’s leading economic indicator reported positive year-over-year growth rates in March. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: New home sales jump 20.7% in March
New home sales in the United States bounced back with a 20.7% increase in March after a surprising 18.2% decline in February, according to Commerce Department data released Friday. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations: Have they reached a peak?
The recent decline in yield most likely represents a rethinking by market participants and investors on the risk of rising inflation to the economic outlook. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Existing home sales slump but market remains hot
Sales of existing homes decreased 3.7% in March to an annual rate of 6.01 million for the second straight monthly decline, according to data from the National Association of Realtors released Thursday. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims: Labor market is moving in the right direction
First-time jobless claims declined to 547,000 for the week ending April 17 from 586,000 the week before and are well below the 4.2 million posted one year ago, according to government data released Thursday. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The strengthening dollar as the recovery takes hold
We expect the real effective exchange rate of the greenback to advance in value against a trade-weighted basket of currencies as growth and interest rate differentials drive capital flows into the U.S. this year. … READ MORE >