The RSM Canada Supply Chain Index in February continued to show stress in the economy, measuring 1.89 standard deviation below normal and little changed from January. For a while, conditions looked promising as the economy recovered from the omicron variant’s spread. Yet this progress was offset by ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus
Chart of the day: New home sales drop amid rising rates
New home sales posted the second consecutive month of decline in February as elevated prices and rising mortgage rates deterred buyers. Sales fell by 2% to 772,000 on an annualized rate, following a sharp 8.4% decrease in January, according to government data released on Wednesday. The decline, ... READ MORE >
RSM US Supply Chain Index posted the best result in a year
As much of the world eases COVID restrictions, we believe that the worst of domestic supply chain issues are in the rear-view mirror. Yet rising infections in some countries, along with geopolitical tensions, could delay a full return to normal. After a dip in January because of the omicron ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall below pre-pandemic level while housing starts improve
Economic data released Thursday showed improvement in both weekly U.S. jobless claims for the week ending March 12 and housing starts in February. The number of building permits remained elevated, despite a small decrease on the month. New filings for jobless claims, a proxy for job layoffs, fell below ... READ MORE >
FOMC’s policy decision: Rate hike, balance sheet reduction, revise down forecast, repeat
Policy normalization at the Federal Reserve took a giant step forward on Wednesday as the Federal Open Market Committee hiked the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 25 and 50 basis points while slashing its growth forecast and increasing its estimate of inflation. The announcement ... READ MORE >
Canada’s inflation hits 5.7% in a warmup for what’s ahead
Canada's inflation rate hit 5.7% year over year in February, up from 5.1% in January, as price increases continued to broaden across categories, according to data from Statistics Canada on Wednesday. The eye-popping figures, however, do not capture price increases associated with Russia’s invasion of ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales lag inflation in February amid rising energy prices
Retail sales growth fell behind inflation increases in February, posting a weak 0.3% increase, as growth slowed down in most categories except gasoline stations. Consumer rationing because of rising gasoline prices already took place before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Excluding sales at the gas ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Producer prices fall, but not for long
Producer prices for final goods decelerated sharply in February as price gains for services and construction slowed down. Producer prices increased by 0.8% on the month, down from a 1.2% increase in January while registering a 10% rise in back-to-back months compared to a year ago, the Bureau of Labor ... READ MORE >
Life during wartime: Inflation, price controls and economic conflict
Inflation spikes higher during war and economic conflict. Price dislocation, price controls and self-rationing are facts of life during wartime. Today, with inflation at a 40-year high and a policy rate pinned to the zero boundary, policymakers face significant constraints as they try to find ways ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Consumer sentiment slides amid energy shock
Consumer sentiment slid further in March, falling by 3.1 points from February amid spikes in oil and gasoline prices. The University of Michigan sentiment gauge dropped to 59.7, an 11-year low, according to data released Friday. The decline was only slightly lower than our forecast of a 3.2-point ... READ MORE >