The demand for gasoline dropped like a stone as Americans remained in their homes during the pandemic, and that drop in demand left OPEC in a quandary. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus
Initial jobless claims: Long shadow of the pandemic hangs over labor market
Initial jobless claims surged by 965,000 for the week ending Jan. 9, which almost surely captures the 498,000 individuals in the leisure and hospitality sector who lost their jobs in December and the remarkable churn in the labor market amid lockdowns by state and local governments. … READ MORE >
Updating U.S. GDP forecast: Fiscal firepower to bolster growth
A confluence of recent events has set the stage for a significant increase in fiscal outlays this year that will boost growth in the American economy to 5.4% for the year, with risk to the upside. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Inflation poses little risk to the U.S. economic outlook
The inflation rate ticked up to 1.4% in December and the yield on 10-year Treasuries remained above 1% for the sixth straight day on Wednesday. These should be considered small victories in the normalization of the economy after a rough nine months of the pandemic. … READ MORE >
The case for assistance to state and local governments
More than 1.3 million state and local government jobs have been lost since December 2019. While this is the result of a broader economic shock across industrial sectors, we expect additional furloughs in state and local governments unless federal aid is quickly put in place. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Longer-term stagnation in the labor force
Since the summer, the labor force has been shrinking by up to 3% on a year-over-year basis. Should the pandemic drag on, there is the potential of more and more of the labor force becoming discouraged, ending efforts to look for work. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: As vaccination begins, health care remains underemployed
The health care sector remains 500,000 jobs below its pre-pandemic peak. Many have left the labor market to tend for families, care for children or because of concern for their own safety. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.7% for December is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but because of the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. … READ MORE >
U.S. December employment report: Temporary stall in hiring
Hiring in the American economy declined by 140,000 in December as firms felt the effects of the six-month delay by the political sector in providing fiscal aid to the public, and the subsequent pulling back in economic activity. … READ MORE >
5 things to know this week in life sciences: Week of Jan. 4
In this week’s industry roundup, we look at recent drug price increases, the ongoing battle over 340B program discounts, key catalysts in Q1 for middle market biotech companies, and more. … READ MORE >