• Skip to main content
  • Skip to secondary menu
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer
  • Canada
  • United Kingdom
  • Subscribe
  • facebook
  • instagram
  • RSS
  • RSMUS.com

The Real Economy Blog

Search

  • Economics
  • Technology
  • Consumer
  • Industrials
  • Finance
  • Real Estate
  • Health Care
  • Life Sciences
Home > Coronavirus > CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic

CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic

Jan. 8, 2021 by Joseph Brusuelas

  • email
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Linkedin

Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.7% for December is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but because of the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic.

If one adjusts the estimate to account for these circumstances, the unemployment rate would be substantially higher — 8.1% at a minimum.

Even under the best of circumstances, in which all employees on temporary layoffs are re-employed, the unemployment rate remains at 6.6%, which is only slightly better than the current U3 unemployment rate.

This suggests that the 135,000-job upward revision in October and November payrolls, which were followed by December’s decrease of 140,000 jobs according to the report released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, should be tempered by the enormity of the task of restoring the labor force back to normal.

For point of reference, the U6 unemployment rate was reported at 11.7% for December, slightly lower than the 12% rate in November. The U6 rate is commonly referred to as the underemployment rate and includes people who remain marginally attached to the labor force.

For more information on how the coronavirus is affecting midsize businesses, please visit the RSM Coronavirus Resource Center.

  • email
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Linkedin

Related posts

  • CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic

    Friday's headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.7% is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic.

  • CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic

    By adjusting the number of unemployed for the number of people who are not in the labor force but want a job, and the pandemic unemployment rate jumps to 8.0%, our analysis shows.

  • CHART OF THE DAY: Higher food costs during the pandemic

    The latest consumer price inflation data confirms what we all know – it costs more to eat during the pandemic, but it costs a lot less to drive to your favorite closed restaurant.

Filed Under: Coronavirus, Economics Tagged With: coronavirus, Covid-19, Joseph Brusuelas, U6 unemployement rate, underemployment, unemployment

About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

Primary Sidebar

Other Regions

  • Canada
  • United Kingdom

Categories

  • Economics
  • Technology
  • Consumer Products
  • Industrials
  • Financial Services
  • Real Estate
  • Health Care
  • Life Sciences

Recent Economics articles

  • CHART OF THE DAY: Institutional investors warm to digital assets Jan. 25, 2021
  • U.K. financial conditions, growth and the pandemic Jan. 25, 2021
  • FOMC preview: Addressing market rise in inflation expectations Jan. 25, 2021

RSMUS.com links

The Real Economy

Middle Market Business Index

MMBI Special Reports

Footer

  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • RSS

About The Real Economy Blog

The Real Economy Blog from RSM US LLP was developed to provide timely economic insights about the middle market economy. It is offered as a complement to RSM’s macroeconomic thought leadership, including The Real Economy monthly publication and the proprietary RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI).

© 2021 RSMUS.com | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy

The Real Economy Blog
  • Economics
  • Technology
  • Consumer
  • Industrials
  • Finance
  • Real Estate
  • Health Care
  • Life Sciences