Yields broke past 1% overnight Tuesday and traded in a range on Wednesday. They did not move sharply following the civil unrest in Washington. We expect the 10-year yield to end the year at 1.29%, which is up from the 1.073% at the time of this writing. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus
Initial jobless claims: Still elevated as another benefits cliff looms
First-time jobless claims held steady at 787,000 for the week ending Jan. 2, while the number of those claiming unemployment benefits stands at 19.1 million, the Labor Department reported Thursday. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Residential construction spending remains robust
Residential spending has been rising since February 2019, increasing by nearly 18% on a year-over-year basis in November. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. manufacturing activity finishes the year strong
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index registered 60.7 in December, its eighth straight month of expansion, and 3.2 points above the 57.5 reading in November. … READ MORE >
December payroll preview: State and local government employment to continue contracting
We anticipate a decline of 75,000 jobs in total U.S. employment and an increase in the unemployment rate to 6.8% when the jobs report is released Friday. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index remains positive, but within a range
Optimism in the American manufacturing community is poised to continue in the new year, though with some caution attached. It is clear that the risks around the pandemic are rising and we may observe volatility in manufacturing indices until the bottlenecks around vaccine distribution are solved. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. factory growth remains robust
U.S. manufacturing activity accelerated at its fastest pace in more than six years in December, according to the IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index released on Monday. … READ MORE >
5 trends from defense technology companies’ Q3 earnings calls
Defense technology company executives remain agile, anticipating future government spending trends, monitoring key supply chain risks, and investing in rapidly advancing technologies. Support for defense funding positions the sector for a strong 2021. … READ MORE >
5 trends from government services companies’ Q3 earnings calls
Trends among government services companies show a sector that has weathered the pandemic relatively well, positioning it for a strong 2021. … READ MORE >
The U.S. external sector: Trade channel to support 2021 recovery
We expect the trade channel to be a major part of the 2021 growth narrative as the Biden administration mends fences with the major American trade partners, excluding China, early next year. In fact, one can already observe the stirring in animal spirits in the global economy as the nascent … … READ MORE >