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Initial jobless claims: Still elevated as another benefits cliff looms

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First-time jobless claims held steady at 787,000 for the week ending Jan. 2, while the number of those claiming unemployment benefits stands at 19.1 million, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

First-time claims for federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance rest at 161,400. Continuing claims fell to 5.07 million. Seasonal factors at the turn of the year tend to dampen claims, and we are certain that this data understates the true number of those out of work.

We have made the case that this data understates the number of those unemployed. This past week, the Washington Post calculated that there are 703,000 pending appeals for unemployment benefits across the economy and another 529,000 people waiting on benefits decisions in states that publicly share that information.

While we are encouraged that the recent fiscal aid agreement will provide relief to those who are unemployed, there is another benefits cliff looming on March 14 that will require further legislative action and attention.

For more information on how the coronavirus is affecting midsize businesses, please visit the RSM Coronavirus Resource Center.

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.