The Canadian economy added 337,000 jobs in February as the reopening of the economy more than offset the job losses in January because of the omicron variant, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Friday. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.5%, for the first time falling below the ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus
FOMC preview: Powell caught in the crossfire
Next Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will result in the central bank hiking its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of between 0.25% and 0.5%. And with risks linked to the war in Ukraine exploding, we do not expect the Federal Reserve to outline its tentative plans to ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Initial jobless claims inch up
Initial jobless claims inched up by 11,000 last week, most likely a temporary spike as most of the increase came from New York and California with 16,000 and 6,000 new claims, respectively, according to government data released Thursday. Despite the normal fluctuation of the claims data, new filings ... READ MORE >
Preview of coming attractions: Inflation surges to 7.9%
The February consumer price index provided an unpleasant preview of coming attractions in the U.S. economy as top-line inflation soared by 0.8% on the month, pushing the year-ago reading to 7.9%, the fastest rate in 40 years. It is important to note that the February estimation of inflation ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Job openings surpass 11 million in back-to-back months
The scramble by employers to find workers continued amid a historically tight labor market in January, as employers reported 11.3 million job openings for the month, according to government data released on Wednesday. That would have been the highest on record, except that December's figure was revised ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: U.S. trade deficit nears $90 billion, a record
The United States trade deficit reached a record high in January as strong domestic demand continued to push imports higher, especially oil, while exports were dampened by the omicron surge which reduced production and limited travel. The trade deficit widened 9.4% in January to $89.7 billion, ... READ MORE >
Energy shock will hit low-income Americans the hardest
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has sent oil prices skyrocketing to their highest level since 2008. In fewer than 10 days, oil prices have increased by 30%, surpassing our recent base-line model for a 20% oil price shock, which we estimated would push inflation above 10% this year. Despite such a ... READ MORE >
U.S. February jobs report: Bittersweet symphony as employment rises by 678,000
Despite a net increase in total employment of 678,000 and a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.8% in February, the improvement in the American labor market is now in the rearview mirror as the impact of geopolitical tensions, searing economic sanctions, rising inflation and surging oil prices sets ... READ MORE >
The impact of an energy shock on Canada’s economy
As geopolitical conditions worsen and the human toll of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine mounts, the economic impact is rising as well, especially on global energy markets. Though the impact on Canada’s gross domestic product will be minimal thanks to Canada’s strong energy industry, consumers and ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Wholesale gas prices Imply 10.4% Increase at the pump
Geopolitical tensions linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have roiled oil markets around the world. The global Brent crude benchmark has traded around $115 per barrel and the domestic West Texas Intermediate benchmark stood at $112. A year ago, those prices hovered around $60. The elevated levels ... READ MORE >