At least 19% of the rise in the unemployment rate since last year can be explained by the increase in the labor supply. Since 2021, the return of workers to the labor force, in addition to immigration and population growth, has been a key driver of overall unemployment in the United States. Even though ... READ MORE >
Economics
Manufacturing and labor markets give mixed signals amid Fed’s pivot
The mixed signals from data on job openings and the ISM manufacturing index, both released on Tuesday, offer a nuanced picture of the economy as the Federal Reserve transitions to a period to lower rates. During the transition of interest rates, not everything will go in the same direction. Elevated ... READ MORE >
U.S. port strike will have a modest impact on GDP
The strike by port workers along the East and Gulf coasts of the United States will provide a modest hit to GDP of a little more than 0.1 percentage points per week, or roughly $4.3 billion in lost exports and imports. If sustained, that impact would result in roughly a half percentage point shaved ... READ MORE >
Inflation falls to lowest level since February 2021
August’s data on spending and inflation should put an end to the debate on whether the economy has achieved a soft landing and avoided a recession. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, dropped to 2.2% on a year-ago basis, the lowest since ... READ MORE >
Robust economic revisions defy recession doubts
While many are concerned that the economy is heading toward a recession, new data on spending and the labor market suggest otherwise. It's hard to bet against the American economy when the most recent data has surprised to the upside. Significant revisions to income and gross domestic product from 2020 ... READ MORE >
American outperformance in the post-pandemic global economy
One of the more underdiscussed economic developments following the shocks of the pandemic has been the United States’ outperformance compared to its peers. This success can be traced to bold monetary and fiscal policies put in place that have hardened supply chains, bolstered energy independence and ... READ MORE >
Fed cuts rates to support a soft landing in the economy
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday reduced its policy rate by 50 basis points to a range between 4.75% and 5% to protect full employment and preserve the soft landing it has achieved following a historic price shock. The central bank also laid out a path of monetary policy that suggests additional 25 ... READ MORE >
Canada’s consumer price index hits 2 per cent target
Canada's consumer price index hit the pivotal 2 per cent target in August as inflation continued a downward trajectory, according to Statistics Canada data released on Tuesday. The drop is thanks to lower gasoline prices compared to a year ago. The Bank of Canada will need to continue rate cuts amid ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales and industrial production beat expectations
Retail sales in the United States increased by 0.1% in August—much closer to our forecast of a 0.2% increase compared to the market consensus of a 0.2% decline. The stronger-than-expected retail sales data came as industrial production also topped forecasts in August, growing by 0.8% from a month ... READ MORE >
Real federal funds rate illustrates that Fed policy is restrictive
When I am on the road talking to clients about the economy and the path of Federal Reserve policy, the most frequent question I get is: If the economy is growing how can policy be restrictive? The answer lies not so much in the current economy as it does in what awaits if the Fed continues along its ... READ MORE >