Canada’s jobs report for May showed that the labour market continued to soften as the economy added 27,000 jobs and the unemployment rate inched up to 6.2%, a full percentage point up from a year earlier. The employment rate fell by 0.1 percentage point to 61.3% While it’s still too early to say, the ... READ MORE >
Economics
U.S. jobs report: Strong demand for labor continues its remarkable run in May
This economic commentary is dedicated to the memory of my friend the economics reporter Ben White. I shall miss talking economics, policy and baseball with him. Labor demand continues to increase at a remarkably strong pace, which removes the prospect of a July rate reduction and creates the sense that ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Dot plot to imply two rate cuts this year
We expect the Federal Open Market Committee to keep its policy rate unchanged between a rate of 5.25% and 5.5% at its meeting next week. But we anticipate that the median rate forecast implied by the dot plot will indicate that the committee now expects two rate cuts this year, for a cumulative rate ... READ MORE >
The case for rate cuts: Read our chief economist’s op-ed in Barron’s
With inflation coming under control around the world, major central banks have embarked on a shift in monetary policy to spur demand and foster economic growth, In the past two days, the Bank of Canada and European Central Bank kicked off this regime change with the announcements of 25 basis-point ... READ MORE >
Global central bank policy pivot continues as ECB cuts rate
The European Central Bank reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points on Thursday which, following the 25 basis-point rate reduction by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, represents the first in what we expect will be a series of rate cuts by the G7 central banks this year. The moves in Europe and Canada ... READ MORE >
In long-awaited shift, Bank of Canada cuts its policy rate to 4.75%,
The Bank of Canada's pivot has finally arrived. After years of raising interest rates and then keeping them elevated, the Bank of Canada dropped the policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, signaling a new period of recovery and growth. It was the first rate change for the Bank of Canada ... READ MORE >
Job openings fall to the lowest level since February 2021
The labor market continued to cool at an encouraging pace as elevated interest rates weighed further on overall demand. Job openings fell to 8.06 million in April from a downwardly revised 8.36 million in the previous month, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. The ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada preview: A rate cut is desperately needed
The Bank of Canada needs to announce rate cuts during its June 5 meeting to spur economic growth. Any further delay and the bank would risk making a policy error and undermining Canada’s growth outlook. A 25-basis-point rate cut would kickstart the easing cycle, which will unfold gradually over the ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing activity slows in May
Softer manufacturing sentiment in May is within our expectations as elevated interest rates continue to weigh on overall goods demand. The Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to 48.7 from 49.2, the lowest level in three months. Over a period of time, a reading above 48.7 indicates ... READ MORE >
Canada’s economy grew by 0.4%, bolstering case for rate cuts
Canada’s latest gross domestic product data adds to the mountain of evidence that a rate cut by the Bank of Canada should come at its meeting next week for the recovery to begin. The economy expanded by 0.4% in the first quarter after no change in the previous quarter, according to data released by ... READ MORE >