Surveys carried out by four of the six regional central banks reported elevated manufacturing conditions, though there was some slippage from the lofty levels of the previous month. … READ MORE >
Economics
Initial jobless claims set a new pandemic low
First-time jobless claims for the week ending May 22 declined to 406,000, a new pandemic-era low, putting them on track to breach the 400,000 level in the coming weeks and return to levels not seen since before the pandemic. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Issuance of negative-yielding debt declines as global reflation takes hold
During the pandemic, issuance of negative-yielding debt jumped from a pandemic low of $7.6 trillion in March 2020 to a pandemic peak of $18.2 trillion in December as investors sought safety. But that risk aversion appears to be ebbing. … READ MORE >
As markets for digital assets gyrate, regulators take notice
It is becoming increasingly likely that the froth in the markets for digital assets and the risk it brings are why federal authorities have begun signaling stepped-up scrutiny. … READ MORE >
Forecasting the dollar in a post-pandemic world
We expect that the value of the greenback will experience notable volatility with modest downward pressure, causing the dollar to decline in value against major trading currencies. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Gasoline prices likely to ease as driving season kicks off
Based on wholesale gasoline futures, retail gasoline prices should decline roughly 8% in the near term from the national average retail rack rate of $3.04. … READ MORE >
The difference between noise and signal in U.S. wage growth
While we are observing some indicators that imply modest wage growth, at this point it is more noise than signal and does not imply an imminent breakout in wage push inflation that would end the three-decade period of quiescence in pricing. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: First-time jobless claims continue to decline
First-time jobless claims continued their downward march for the week ending May 15, falling to 444,000, as new filings for federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance declined to 95,086. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Housing permits hold while lack of materials stifles starts
Homebuilders continue to be bullish on the American housing market as housing permits remained above 1.7 million for the fifth straight month, coming in at 1.76 million in April. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The logistics of a recovery
The Port of Los Angeles continued processing record numbers of shipping containers in April, including empties necessary for maintaining the Asian supply chain. … READ MORE >