We expect a net increase in total employment of 1 million, with risk of a much larger gain, and a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.8% when the March jobs report is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Economics
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index improves even as the economy lags behind
The decline in COVID-19 cases and deaths is creating preconditions for what we expect to be a robust three-year economic recovery in the United Kingdom. This is captured by the recent improvement in domestic financial conditions to just under one standard deviation above neutral. … READ MORE >
Closing Canada’s output gap with a little help from its friends
While the American economy is expected to exceed its pre-pandemic projection by 0.2% this year, Canada is expected to undershoot by 3.2%. It is in every nation’s best interest to work for the success and health of all economies. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Unexpected risk and a blocked Suez Canal
Just when optimism was returning to the global economy, a shortage of microchips threatens the automobile industry and a container ship gets stuck in the Suez Canal, threatening the global supply chain. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Manufacturing sector leading the way out of recession
The economic downturn caused by the pandemic has had many unusual dynamics, and one of these is that the manufacturing sector, along with housing, is leading the way to recovery. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims drop below 700,000 for first time in a year
While first-time claims remain elevated, they are moving in a constructive direction. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: New home sales drop 18.2% in February as market cools
New home sales fell 18.2% in February compared to January to a seasonally adjusted 775,000 — a nine-month low. At the same time, median home prices eased 1% to $349,400 nationally, according to government data released on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Rail deal is a sign of increasing North American economic integration
Canadian Pacific’s $25 billion deal to purchase Kansas City Southern would create the first railroad network covering Canada, Mexico and the United States. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve to end supplemental leverage ratio capital break
The Federal Reserve announced on Friday that it would not extend an important rule accommodation put in place last spring that helped banks continue to lend to small and medium-size businesses as the economic effects of the pandemic took hold. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Signs of increasing foreign investment in the U.S. and the dollar
February data from the government’s Treasury International Capital reporting system—which tracks capital flows into and out of the United States—provided another strong signal that the nascent economic recovery is quickly turning into a full-blown expansion. … READ MORE >