While we are observing some indicators that imply modest wage growth, at this point it is more noise than signal and does not imply an imminent breakout in wage push inflation that would end the three-decade period of quiescence in pricing. … READ MORE >
Economics
CHART OF THE DAY: First-time jobless claims continue to decline
First-time jobless claims continued their downward march for the week ending May 15, falling to 444,000, as new filings for federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance declined to 95,086. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Housing permits hold while lack of materials stifles starts
Homebuilders continue to be bullish on the American housing market as housing permits remained above 1.7 million for the fifth straight month, coming in at 1.76 million in April. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The logistics of a recovery
The Port of Los Angeles continued processing record numbers of shipping containers in April, including empties necessary for maintaining the Asian supply chain. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Remittances to Mexico reach record levels
The remittances, which equaled roughly 3.8% of gross domestic product in March, or nearly $41 billion a year, are a crucial source of funds comparable with foreign direct investment into Mexico. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Unemployment insurance claims continue to fall
First-time claims for unemployment insurance benefits continue to move in the right direction, falling during the week ending May 8 to 473,000, or a drop of 34,000 in seasonally adjusted terms. … READ MORE >
Interest rate update: Recent increase shows progress on the path to normalization
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds is approaching 1.7%, within 20 basis points of already low pre-pandemic rates. The move higher is in response to signs of an economic recovery and perceived risks around inflation. But sub-2% 10-year interest rates are far from what a healthy economy would support. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: A do-over year for the Consumer Price Index
The inflation numbers for April released on Wednesday show the Consumer Price Index rising by 4.2% compared to April 2020, higher than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 3.6%. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Job openings rose in the first quarter
The number of job openings and those who quit their jobs increased in the first three months of the year, pointing to a healthy demand for labor despite the subsequent disappointing jobs report for April, according to government data released on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Frothy markets and the risk to the economic outlook in the era of low interest rates
The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Plus Index has reached 2.9 standard deviations above neutral, an unprecedented level that signals the possibility of froth in asset markets. … READ MORE >