Canada’s consumer price index for February saw a sizeable uptick—but the increase was just the calm before a broader economic storm. … READ MORE >
Economics
Market minute: U.S. runs a trade surplus with Canada excluding oil
The oil trade between the two countries is a function of geographical proximity, efficiency, cost and infrastructure concerns. … READ MORE >
Retail sales rebound, easing some concerns over growth
We do not expect the data to alter the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at its meeting this week. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Will the economy keep on truckin’? An indicator is saying no.
The Dow Jones U.S. Trucking Index has declined 24% from its peak on Nov. 11 and is down 21.5% since its recent high on Feb. 18. … READ MORE >
The waiting is the hardest part: Fed can’t do anything about tariffs
We expect the Fed to keep its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% while adjusting its Summary of Economic Projections to anticipate slower growth at or near 2%. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Drill, baby, drill and the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum
The spot price of 5.5-inch diameter North American steel pipe, used by drillers to extract oil, has soared more than 20% over the past month. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Rates in Europe and Japan signaling a stronger euro and yen
The dollar’s recent five-month appreciation versus the euro appears to have topped out, reversing the dollar’s move toward parity. … READ MORE >
Market minute: The policy determinants of the rising euro
The euro is poised to appreciate against the dollar as the continent loosens fiscal restraints to rebuild its defenses. … READ MORE >
Job openings rise above expectations in January
The quit rate, a proxy for labor demand, rose in January, indicating that workers were in a stronger bargaining position as demand increased. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Risk of stagnation, stagflation and slower growth
Despite the trading community pricing in three rate cuts this year, employment, wage and inflation data imply a Fed that may be reluctant to reduce rates into an economy that is slowing amid sticky inflation. … READ MORE >