We expect a total increase in employment of 105,000 jobs for February—with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.3%—when the Labor Department releases its monthly data on Friday. … READ MORE >
Economics
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index is positive as budget is introduced
With the introduction of the latest U.K. budget, we anticipate that financial conditions are conducive to a reflation of the U.K. economy and growth rates at or above 4% this year with risk of a quick pace of growth. … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation outlook: Don’t believe the hype
Concerns about inflation risk are premature and overblown. Current monetary policy is well-positioned to support the reflation of the domestic economy, a return to full economic potential later this year and full employment over the next three years. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: A sustained recovery as rebound takes shape
For the seventh consecutive month, the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index increased, showing above-normal manufacturing sentiment. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Closing out the gap year
A recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis found sharp downturns last year in enrollments of freshman at four-year and two-year public colleges, and a moderate downturn at private four-year nonprofit colleges. … READ MORE >
Government transfers fuel robust income and spending: Incomes ex-transfers illustrate need for additional stimulus
Government transfers from the end-of-year $908 billion fiscal aid package were the primary catalyst for the 10% increase in income and the 2.4% jump in spending, a robust kickoff to what is going to be one of the more memorable years in economic activity in decades. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Only cold comfort for those out of work
Seasonal distortions caused a larger-than-expected decline in first-time jobless claims to 730,000 for the week ending Feb. 20, which significantly understates the true pace of first-time firings across the economy. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Leading indicator points toward economic reflation
The Conference Board’s leading economic indicator continues to point toward a reflation of the economy from the shock of the pandemic, rising at a monthly rate of 0.5%. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The 10-year Treasury yield goes its own way
Fixed-income investors are clearly pricing in a general reflation of the economy this year that will produce growth rates not observed since the late 1990’s. … READ MORE >
U.S. industrial production growth continues
The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that its index of industrial production, a measure of output at factories, mines and utilities, rose 0.9% last month as output continued to recover from the depths of the economic shutdown last spring. … READ MORE >