The latest data from the Treasury International Capital System indicates a 65% increase in net foreign long-term portfolio investment in U.S. securities compared to the imposition of tariffs on China in July 2018, and a 138% increase since February 2019, the month before the pandemic. … READ MORE >
Economics
CHART OF THE DAY: Housing market remains strong
Home builder confidence dipped slightly in June, with the National Association of Home Builders on Tuesday reporting a confidence index of 80, down from 81 in May. … READ MORE >
Rising household debt vs. wealth: Cause for concern, or the foundation of economic renewal?
As the economy emerges from the pandemic, concerns about a debt hangover like the one that followed the financial crisis are proliferating. But with American household balance sheets the strongest in decades, we see little chance of a consumer debt hangover interrupting the current expansion anytime soon. … READ MORE >
June retail sales remain robust as economy runs hot
Retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, reflecting the broader narrative that underscores the American economy: Strong fundamentals around increasing employment, rising wages and savings will support a robust rebound as growth posts a cyclical peak in the second quarter. … READ MORE >
Canada’s economic miracle: How Vancouver and Toronto have defied the pandemic and trade wars
Fueled by growing industries like technology, media and entertainment, Vancouver and Toronto are showing how a reimagined economy based on information and digital technologies can bring more resilience and prosperity even amid the economic shock of a pandemic. … READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index surges 5.4% in June as the economy reopens
The recent surge in domestic prices continued as consumer prices increased by 0.9% on a monthly basis and by 5.4% on a year-ago basis, according to Labor Department data released on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: Vaccines and the pandemic in 6 charts
The emergence of the Delta variant presents another round of economic risks that are part of the reason why we recently lowered our growth forecast for the year from 7.5% to 7% in the United States. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Inflation expectations remain rational and muted
A look at one of our preferred measurements of inflation expectations implies that the risk of a sustained outbreak of inflation is receding just as another set of inflation data—the Consumer Price Index for June—is about to be published on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Improving labor market signals increased consumer confidence and spending
The steady drop in unemployment claims this year coincides with a steady increase in consumer confidence, as seen in the Langer Research Consumer Comfort Index. … READ MORE >
The rebirth of industrial policy in the United States
The U.S. Innovation and Competition Act of 2021, a $250 billion legislative package passed in June to facilitate the research and development of science and technology, represents a sea change in U.S. economic strategy and a return of the government’s use of industrial policy. But the embrace of industrial policy to solve economic and strategic problems carries with it considerable possibilities and risks. … READ MORE >