The increase in jobs, the largest since April, gives confidence that Canada can maintain a soft landing until the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts, which began in June, are sufficient for the economy to awaken. … READ MORE >
Economics
Producer price index implies further disinflation
The lower-than-expected producer inflation report released on Friday should offset some of the upside surprises from the consumer inflation data released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
U.S. CPI: Further evidence of disinflation supports another rate cut
We expect the Fed to keep its eyes on preserving full employment amid general price stability, which points to a further reduction in interest rates throughout the remainder of the year … READ MORE >
When money has a price: How the higher cost of capital is affecting America’s real economy
Business models built around zero interest rates—and services firms with exposure to those businesses—are adapting to the return of a positive term premium in the price of money. … READ MORE >
October surprise: U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September as unemployment fell to 4.1%
The jobs data released Friday strongly suggests that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points on Nov. 7 at its next meeting. … READ MORE >
Service sector showed fastest growth in nearly two years
The Institute for Supply Management’s service sector index grew to 54.9 in September from 51.5 in August. … READ MORE >
Why the labor market is stronger than the unemployment rate indicates
At least 19% of the increase in the unemployment rate from 2023 to 2024 can be explained by the increase in labor supply. Since 2021, the return of workers to the labor force, in addition to new additions from immigration and population growth, has been a key driver of overall unemployment in the U.S. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing and labor markets give mixed signals amid Fed’s pivot
The ISM manufacturing index for September stayed unchanged at 47.2, indicating a contraction of overall activity for the sixth consecutive month. … READ MORE >
U.S. port strike will have a modest impact on GDP
The strike by port workers along the East and Gulf coasts of the United States will provide a modest hit to GDP of a little more than 0.1 percentage points per week, or roughly $4.3 billion in lost exports and imports. … READ MORE >
Inflation falls to lowest level since February 2021
With the productivity boom and more interest rate cuts coming, the economy is poised to repeat the economic growth and prosperity of the 1990s. … READ MORE >