One way to understand the financial impact of policy uncertainty is to look at the implied volatility of important bilateral currency pairs. … READ MORE >
Economics
Manufacturing prices rise in February amid higher tariffs
The prices paid subindex in the ISM manufacturing report rose to 62.4 in February, the highest level since June 2022, from 54.9 in January. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Credit availability and consumer expectations
Despite a strong jobs market and rising real wages, expectations around the provision of credit remain low. … READ MORE >
January PCE index: Strong income gains amid elevated inflation
Underlying inflation appears to have flattened out near 2.5% on an annual basis with service sector costs rising at a 3.4% rate. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Rising short-term inflation expectations
But given the general uncertainty around trade policy, one should begin looking more closely at short-term inflation expectations, which have been on the rise. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims rise as durable goods data is mixed
While the government layoffs contributed to the increase, new filings for jobless benefits in Washington accounted for only about 2,000 of the 22,000 overall increase. … READ MORE >
Market minute: The growing complexity of U.S. supply chains
The aggregate complexity of the supply chains for the 50 largest firms in the S&P 500 Index by revenue is fully nine times more complex than in 2009, a stunning 16% compounded annual growth rate. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Is the fight against PCE inflation like waiting for Godot?
The January PCE inflation report, to be released Friday, will most likely show a 0.3% top-line increase on the month and a 2.5% increase from one year ago. … READ MORE >
Market minute: The impact of China’s ailing property markets
The Chinese Real Estate Climate Index, released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, stands at 92.78, well below its historical average of 99.47. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Complacency in markets understates growing risk
Several measures of risk point to increasing complacency in financial markets despite the possibility of rising interest rates, changing trade and fiscal policies, and rising inflation. … READ MORE >