Producers and consumers have pulled forward economic activity to avoid potential tariffs, which has skewed hard data and dampened soft sentiment data. … READ MORE >
Economics
Market minute: Widening credit spreads denote rising risk from trade policy
Wider spreads are often a harbinger of reduced access to capital, rising unemployment and declining corporate capital expenditures. … READ MORE >
Europe’s way forward in a post-industrial world
Change has come to Europe’s developed economies. The combination of China Shock 2.0 and a reduced American security umbrella is creating the conditions that if seized could move Europe toward a more perfect union. … READ MORE >
Market minute: A new center of gravity is emerging in bond markets
U.S. bonds have experienced notable volatility that is most likely establishing a new center of gravity in markets. The result could be higher rates ahead even as growth slows and inflation rises. … READ MORE >
Market minute: U.S. financial conditions continue to deteriorate
Financial conditions continue to deteriorate as uncertainty and volatility creep back into the equity, bond and money markets. … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady with a stagflation-lite forecast
The Fed’s statement and forecasts draw a picture of a central bank that is on its heels and looking to ascertain the difference between signal and noise amid rising uncertainty as it determines its policy … READ MORE >
Market minute: There is no alternative to the U.S. dollar
The dollar remains the currency of choice for emerging markets. The dollar’s percentage share of emerging market bonds stands at 86.3% and is 81.7% of all credit. … READ MORE >
Industrial production index hits record high amid tariffs
The U.S. industrial production index rose to a record 104.2 on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, according to the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >
Calm before the storm: Canada’s CPI rises as tax break ends
Canada’s consumer price index for February saw a sizeable uptick—but the increase was just the calm before a broader economic storm. … READ MORE >
Market minute: U.S. runs a trade surplus with Canada excluding oil
The oil trade between the two countries is a function of geographical proximity, efficiency, cost and infrastructure concerns. … READ MORE >