It is clear that volatility in interest rates, bond yields and foreign exchange markets will accelerate and that firms will need to consider ways to hedge that volatility. … READ MORE >
Economics
Market minute: Rebar prices and dying disinflation
Economists have stepped up their research to ascertain if disinflation has ended and how that affects the risk matrix around the economy. … READ MORE >
Initial claims rise slightly as federal layoffs and wildfire impact was muted
The number of initial claims for jobless benefits rose slightly to 219,000 last week, close to our forecast and the pre-pandemic average of 218,000. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Soft economic landing at risk
Businesses, and the economy overall, face uncertainty amid the regime change in the global economy. … READ MORE >
Housing starts plunge amid severe weather and elevated mortgage rates
The one-time seasonal factors that contributed to the decline should subside. Permits for new buildings and homes held up in January, rising by 0.1%. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Canadian dollar remains under duress
Should higher tariffs on Canada announced by the United States take effect, we would expect the value of the loonie to continue depreciating against the dollar. … READ MORE >
Market minute: The ripple effect of higher European defense spending
A common European Union defense buildup would provide substantial relief to many manufacturers, particularly in Germany. … READ MORE >
Market minute: U.S. housing supply is not meeting demand
One reason for the inadequate supply is that many homeowners are sitting on low-rate mortgages locked in during the pandemic and before. … READ MORE >
The new mercantilism: Tariffs and currency manipulation in an era of U.S.-China tensions
After decades of growing trade and current account imbalances in the U.S., the new administration has set out to change this equation. Now, a new mercantilism, rooted in tariffs and trade protection, is emerging. … READ MORE >
The decline in January retail sales is less concerning than it might seem
The January retail sales report is one of those rare occasions where looking at the 12-month change makes more sense than the monthly metric. … READ MORE >