American consumers are continuing to show remarkable resilience in their spending habits, despite facing higher prices, particularly at the gas pump, according to retail sales data for March released by the Commerce Department on Monday. The swift recovery in retail sales in March, along with ... READ MORE >
Economics
Geopolitical tensions and the rising oil risk premium threaten global recovery
Global oil markets are pricing in a risk premium of $7 to $10 a barrel in the wake of Iran’s drone attacks on Israel over the weekend, posing the single largest risk to the current global economic recovery. Despite in the rise in the risk premium, reflected in futures markets, early trading in oil ... READ MORE >
U.S. consumer sentiment falls as inflation stays sticky
Consumer sentiment in the United States ticked down in April in a sign of the impact of rising inflation, particularly gasoline prices, over the past three months. The consumer sentiment index fell to 77.9 from 79.4, according to the University of Michigan survey on Friday. While the index is ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds its rate at 5% in dovish statement
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 5% at its meeting on Tuesday, as widely expected, while continuing its restrictive monetary policy of quantitative tightening. But the central bank made a marked shift in its statement, turning from a focus on inflation to one on growth with a decidedly ... READ MORE >
Hot inflation data dims prospects for a Fed rate cut in June
The U.S. consumer price index came in above expectations for March, putting the Federal Reserve in a difficult position as it seeks to starting cutting interest rates this year. Both overall and core inflation remained unchanged at 0.4% monthly, the third consecutive month that the overall CPI ... READ MORE >
Financial markets update: An improved outlook for corporate borrowing
Improved financial conditions, a dynamic labor market and wage growth that is exceeding inflation all should bolster corporate earnings this year in the United States. Most important, with productivity improving, the potential for greater corporate profits and rising margins will be a theme in ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada preview: A dovish tone with rate cuts on horizon
The Bank of Canada will almost certainly leave its policy rate unchanged when it meets this week, but the tone of its statement will shift to dovish as bank officials recognize easing inflation, the slowing labour market and stagnant growth. We expect that the central bank's first rate cut will occur ... READ MORE >
Canada’s unemployment rate surpasses 6% for the first time in over two years
To see why rate cuts are coming in Canada, look no further than the March job report. The unemployment rate reached 6.1%, surpassing 6% for the first time in over two years, according to Statistics Canada on Friday. While Canada has added more than 300,000 jobs over the past year, including a loss of ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: American exceptionalism amid dynamic growth
While it’s always good to identify risks to the economic outlook, too often market players mistake the condition of a few trees—there are always isolated problems—with the health of the forest. The March jobs report shows just how healthy the American labor market is, despite isolated criticisms. ... READ MORE >
Initial claims reflect remarkable job security in American economy
Initial claims for jobless benefits for the week ending March 30 show that American workers continue to have remarkable job security. First-time claims increased to 221,000 from an upwardly revised 212,000 during the previous week, which was modestly above our preferred metric, the 13-week moving average, ... READ MORE >