The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index — a key gauge of U.S. factory activity — dropped to 50.1 in February, from 50.9 a month earlier, and below the consensus of 50.5. … READ MORE >
Economics
Revising growth expectations down because of shocks from coronavirus
We are revising down our 2020 growth forecast because of supply, demand, and financial shocks rippling through the global and U.S. economies amid the spread of coronavirus. While we do not foresee a recession at this time because of expected fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, we believe economic growth will … … READ MORE >
Powell’s statement is a necessary first step in addressing the coronavirus fallout
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Lowell made a well-directed and much-needed statement on Friday in an attempt to begin taking back control of the narrative of the Fed’s response to the coronavirus outbreak. … READ MORE >
An improved outlook for manufacturing filtered by Boeing and the coronavirus
The RSM US Manufacturing Index implies improvement in national manufacturing sentiment in February, and we expect a similar uptick in the February ISM survey of manufacturing sentiment next month. However, February may be the last month before the coronavirus takes its toll on the global supply chain; at the same time, the Boeing shutdown will adversely impact the domestic supply chain throughout the first quarter of the year–the impact is expected to show up in both hard and soft data. … READ MORE >
Negative yields increase as global coronavirus risk proliferates
With the outbreak of Covid-19 in China in late December, a global safe haven move by investors started in earnest around Jan. 14; as a result, negative-yielding debt has jumped back to $13.96 trillion as of Feb. 26, writes RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas. … READ MORE >
Canary in a coal mine: What money market spreads tell us about risk
The recent upset in financial markets has caused a move in sensitive risk spreads implying potential credit market challenges should the crisis spread into the real economy. … READ MORE >
How the Fed responds to economic downturns
Since the 1970s, the Federal Reserve has relied on manipulating expectations of short-term interest rates through cuts in its overnight policy rate in response to economic and manufacturing slowdowns. … READ MORE >
As coronavirus spreads, what are the fiscal and monetary policy options?
Investors over the past few days have priced in three 25 basis-point cuts in the federal funds rate by the end of the year, with the first cut implied by the markets coming in June. This is somewhat misguided, given the nature of the global public health emergency that is … … READ MORE >
Seaports grow quiet amid trade tensions and the coronavirus outbreak
While commercial activity as measured by the comings and goings of shipping containers at the Los Angeles/Long Beach seaport has been dropping since the onset of the U.S. trade war, it is now threatened by a health crisis as the coronavirus spreads out of Asia. … READ MORE >
The new tech economy is all about location, location, location
Economic output in the United States is increasingly revealing a geographic divide, with a greater share of gross domestic product being concentrated in the nation’s largest metropolitan areas. … READ MORE >