For the first time since the dot.com bust in 2001, the difference between the equity earnings yield on the forward-looking S&P 500 less the yield on the 10-year Treasury has turned negative. … READ MORE >
Economics
Morning market minute: The divergent unemployment rates of foreign-born and native-born workers
The unemployment rate of native-born workers stood at 3.7% through the end of last year, compared with the 4.3% jobless rate of foreign-born workers. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Trucking firms at risk amid trade tensions
Trucking and transportation firms, especially small and midsize ones, would take a hit should large tariffs result in diminished demand and a reduced volume of goods crossing borders. … READ MORE >
Labor demand cools in December
Job openings fell to 7.6 million from 8.2 million in November, near the pre-pandemic level and providing the Fed with more relief regarding wage pressure on inflation. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Why productivity and workers hold the key to growth
Economic growth amid high interest rates depends on two major factors: rising productivity and growth in the labor supply. … READ MORE >
Even with pause, Trump’s tariffs and Canada’s response establish volatile new economic reality
While a reprieve on tariffs may be welcomed, the back-and-forth between the U.S. and Canada laid bare Canada’s economic vulnerability amid ongoing political volatility. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Tariffs and the rising dollar
With steep tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China set to begin Tuesday, one should expect the greenback to continue is ascent against major trading currencies. … READ MORE >
How an escalating trade war will affect global growth, inflation and employment
If the tariffs stick, they will trim 0.36 percentage points from U.S. GDP growth over the next 12 months, and PCE inflation will increase by 0.4%. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: What guacamole tells us about the cost of tariffs
Whether you make guacamole from scratch, as my grandmother Juanita liked to do, or buy pre-made spicy guacamole from Central Market in Austin, Tex., it’s going to cost more. … READ MORE >
Trump, tariffs and financial markets
Tariffs cannot be both a negotiating tactic and an offset that raises revenues to finance tax cuts. … READ MORE >