The consumer sentiment index in April fell to its lowest level since 2022, plunging to 50.8 from 57.0 in March. At the same time, inflation expectations rose to their highest levels since the 1980s. … READ MORE >
Economics
Market Minute: Dollar tumbles as investors exit U.S. assets
A loss of credibility and confidence in the policy to disrupt patterns of trade has spread from domestic financial investors to global fiscal and monetary authorities. … READ MORE >
March inflation moderated in the last clean report before tariffs
Investors and policymakers should anticipate top-line and core inflation to advance at a 4% to 4.5% pace by the middle of the summer. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Tariffs and the damage done
Even after a surge in equity markets on April 9, American financial conditions stand at 1.1 standard deviations below neutral, indicating a drag on overall growth. … READ MORE >
Simultaneous shocks to tip economy into recession in current quarter
We have increased our recession probability to 55% over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Yields spike as financial conditions tighten and investors seek cash
The 10-year Treasury yield surged on Tuesday to close at 4.29% in a sign of the pressure building across the fixed income complex as investors seek cash. … READ MORE >
Canada lost 33,000 jobs in March as more pain looms due to U.S. tariffs
Canada lost 33,000 jobs in March as U.S. tariffs came into effect. Expect more layoffs in the coming months as tariffs cause widespread economic pains. … READ MORE >
More noise than signal: U.S. adds 228,000 jobs in March
For now, the entry of people into the workforce and wage gains will provide a cushion for the economy as it adjusts to the new realities of higher taxes on imported goods. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: First the tariff supply shock, then the inflation
With the recent round of reciprocal tariffs, the United States is heading toward another supply shock, which will spur the worst kind of inflation. … READ MORE >
Canada spared from worst of new U.S. tariffs—but economic challenges remain
The absence of new tariffs is a small consolation prize for Canada as the U.S. imposed sweeping tariffs on most countries, but economic challenges remain. … READ MORE >