The RSM Brexit Stress Index rose to record highs on Wednesday, following news that the government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson had received the okay to suspend Parliament just weeks ahead of a deadline for the U.K. to chart its path for withdrawal from the European Union. … READ MORE >
Economics
RSM Brexit Stress Index: Factoring in longer-term issues
The RSM Brexit Stress Index ended higher again this week on increased volatility. The composite index, which measures economic stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, closed at 1.74 on Friday from 1.64 a week ago. … READ MORE >
Is the next mortgage bubble imminent? Not so fast, the debt data tells us
There’s no denying that U.S. consumer debt is high. But despite headlines about a pending mortgage crisis not unlike the one that preceded the Great Recession, data shows that the U.S. economy is not yet ready for a “back to the future” scenario, writes RSM Senior Real Estate Analyst and Partner Troy Merkel. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index: Factoring in dual recessions
The RSM Brexit Stress Index held relatively steady this week, maintaining high levels of stress as Germany’s manufacturing recession came front and center for the foreign exchange market.
The composite index, which measures economic stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, closed at 1.64 on Friday from 1.69 a week earlier and still significantly above normal levels. … READ MORE >
US data deluge: cold cup of coffee on a sunny summer day
This morning’s data deluge provided a perfect snapshot of the U.S. economy at the current time. A robust consumer, driven by strong real compensation in the first quarter of the year, continued to prop up the American economy, even as the domestic manufacturing sector contracted by 0.5% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Real negative yields signal business cycle nearing an end
The increasing probability that the U.S.-China trade and financial war will be a permanent feature of the global economic landscape is the catalyst for the inversion of the two-year-10-year Treasury yield curve on Wednesday. This inversion of that portion of the curve is the first since June 2007, which marked the start of the Great Recession. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moves up amid global financial backlash and domestic slowdown
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved up again in the week, showing significantly higher levels of stress after the United States escalated its trade war with China and the Chinese renminbi was devalued against the U.S. dollar, causing upheaval in the global markets. … READ MORE >
Think China is paying for tariffs? Guess again
So far in 2019, the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol is on pace to collect more than $72 billion in import duties as a result of U.S. tariffs. An oft-repeated claim is that China is paying the cost of the tariffs. But we have data showing exactly who is paying for the tariffs: U.S. businesses and households. … READ MORE >
Trade war takes dangerous turn toward currency wars: What could happen next?
Chinese fiscal and monetary authorities permitted the yuan early this week to slip below the important psychological level of 7 to the dollar for the first time since 2008. It was a retaliatory measure by China against President Trump’s threat to impose an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion in Chinese exports, beginning Sept. 1. The Chinese government also ordered a halt to all purchases of U.S. crops. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Pound’s decline signals rising concern
The RSM Brexit Stress Index rose sharply in the week, signaling significant worry in the market following depreciation of the British pound that will result in higher costs for food, fuel and other consumer staples for U.K. residents. … READ MORE >