A proposed new tariff on Mexican imports could have a devastating impact on California’s technology sector; the state imports a disproportionate amount of goods from the United States’ southern trading partner and conversely exports a large amount of products over the border. … READ MORE >
Economics
FOMC policy and the path of interest rates: Fed funds rate to decline by 50 basis points in 2019
Based on recent economic data and policy risk around deteriorating global trade conditions, we now expect the Federal Reserve to reduce the policy rate to a range of 1.75 to 2 percent from 2.25 to 2.5 percent by the end of 2019. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report preview: strong top line, focus on manufacturing employment
The focus of the May employment report will likely provide a contrast between underlying strength in the top line, which we expect to show a gain of 175,000 jobs in the month and the slowing of hiring in the manufacturing sector, which has produced a net gain of only 12,000 jobs over the past three months. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index rises amid political uncertainty
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher again this week, closing at 0.60 from 0.53 last Friday, as the markets digest the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May, effective June 7. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index closes week up, as May resigns PM post
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher again in the week, as Prime Minister Theresa May of the Conservative Party resigned her post following multiple failed attempts to solidify a plan for Britain’s departure from the European Union. … READ MORE >
Can consumers carry the economy amid weak business investment?
Durable goods orders in April showed broad weakness as expected, down 2.1 percent. However, in addition to April results, March durable goods numbers were also revised downward, compounding the impact and creating a weaker trend. Can consumer spending pick up the slack? … READ MORE >
IMF cuts global growth outlook to lowest since 2009
The International Monetary Fund recently revised downward its forecast for global growth to 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent, the lowest level since 2009. Business executives, advisors, and other leaders must understand the fundamental changes that informed the revision and how those changes may impact their organizations. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index–a waiting game
The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished the week at 0.36, virtually unchanged from last week’s close. Although the index remains within a range of normality in terms of asset price movement and volatility, there were nevertheless signs of increased stress in the majority of markets. … READ MORE >
Key construction index shows improvement, but builder cost hurdles remain
The National Association of Homebuilders’ Housing Market Index rose 3 points to 66 in May—a seven month high—helped by lower mortgage rates and improved sales of new homes. The increase added momentum to this year’s upward trend following a low at the end of 2018. A reading above 50 indicates more builders see conditions as good than poor. … READ MORE >
What constitutes a trade war? You’re looking at it
While we have remained cautious, now there is no mistake: A trade spat initiated by the United States last year with the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has clearly escalated into a full-blown trade war. … READ MORE >