A key gauge of U.S. factory activity dipped into contraction territory in March, new data released Wednesday shows. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index dipped to 49.1 in March, from 50.1 a month earlier, and above the consensus of 44.5. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, … … READ MORE >
Economics
Initial jobless claims preview: Expect another big increase
We expect that for the week ending March 28, 2020, initial jobless claims will show an increase of 3.1 million when the figures are announced on Thursday. This would imply a two-week total of 6.4 million. … READ MORE >
The swift and significant monetary and fiscal policy responses to the coronavirus
March 2020 has been a month for the ages – one that fiscal and monetary policymakers will never forget. Congress put forward roughly $2.2 trillion, or equal to 11.4% of gross domestic product, in fiscal aid to address current and coming economic difficulties around the country. … READ MORE >
RSM Manufacturing Outlook Index gives another sign of recession
The RSM Manufacturing Outlook Index took a nosedive in March, to levels ordinarily reserved for recessions. The index reversed the gains of the first two months of the year and dropped two standard deviations below levels associated with normal manufacturing conditions. … READ MORE >
RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas unpacks unemployment amid pandemic
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist of RSM US, sees unemployment increasing to 5.75% in the April report and eventually rising to as high as 10.5% in midsummer. … READ MORE >
Pricing in the end of the current British business cycle
The RSM U.K. Financial Conditions Index — which measures the degree of financial accommodation built into British financial asset prices – plummeted from normal conditions just four weeks ago to 3.9 standard deviations below normal levels of implied market risk. … READ MORE >
For states struggling with coronavirus, stimulus package is likely not enough
All states – with the exception of Utah – reported significant numbers of workers filing for unemployment benefits as state and local authorities and businesses took the lead in slowing the virus by shutting down the normal flow of interaction. … READ MORE >
New jobless claims surge, signaling hardship for working America
This week’s initial claims increased to 3.283 million from last week’s 282,000, suggesting a substantial drop in income and household spending in the coming weeks and months, and the increased likelihood of the economy falling into recession. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus pandemic hinders global automotive supply chains
With the recent passage of “phase one” of a trade agreement between the United States and China and the ratification of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), 2020 was supposed to be a transitional year for the global auto industry. Analysts had expectations that sales in the sector had bottomed out … … READ MORE >
March Federal Reserve data signals more challenges ahead for manufacturers
Survey data released this month from the Federal Reserve Bank’s New York and Philadelphia districts shows the greatest manufacturing index drop ever recorded in those regions for the month of March, with overall readings well below earlier estimates and in negative territory. The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s survey of … … READ MORE >