The International Monetary Fund recently revised downward its forecast for global growth to 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent, the lowest level since 2009. Business executives, advisors, and other leaders must understand the fundamental changes that informed the revision and how those changes may impact their organizations. … READ MORE >
Economics
The RSM Brexit Stress Index–a waiting game
The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished the week at 0.36, virtually unchanged from last week’s close. Although the index remains within a range of normality in terms of asset price movement and volatility, there were nevertheless signs of increased stress in the majority of markets. … READ MORE >
Key construction index shows improvement, but builder cost hurdles remain
The National Association of Homebuilders’ Housing Market Index rose 3 points to 66 in May—a seven month high—helped by lower mortgage rates and improved sales of new homes. The increase added momentum to this year’s upward trend following a low at the end of 2018. A reading above 50 indicates more builders see conditions as good than poor. … READ MORE >
What constitutes a trade war? You’re looking at it
While we have remained cautious, now there is no mistake: A trade spat initiated by the United States last year with the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has clearly escalated into a full-blown trade war. … READ MORE >
A pivot point for agriculture : Can agritech save farming?
The U.S. agriculture sector has been hard hit in recent years due to changing global demand and the onset of the Trump administration’s trade conflicts. Growth of real net farm income in 2019 dollars has been negative in nine of the past 19 years. Here’s a look at some of the actions we could take to reverse these trends. … READ MORE >
Counting the costs of trade
Recent scholarly research has validated concerns about comprehensive absorption of costs associated with number of trade spats in which the United States is now engaged. That research implies that American firms and households are paying a $3 billion per month increase in costs caused by trade policy, in addition to absorbing roughly $1.4 billion in welfare losses associated with the policy shift on trade. … READ MORE >
Financial crisis monitor: agriculture sector at risk
Should the current trade policy pathway not be changed, the farm sector is going to experience the greatest downturn since the late 1980s, driven by widespread bankruptcies and consolidation. RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas explores. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index shows increase in financial market stress
The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished the week at 0.34, up from last week’s close at 0.02. Although remaining within a range of normality in terms of asset price movement and volatility, financial market stress is nevertheless inching higher again. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index finishes week slightly up, signals normality
The RSM Brexit Stress Index finished the week at 0.02, slightly higher than last week’s value of -0.01, signaling a period of normality in terms of asset price movement and volatility. … READ MORE >
Time to get real on GDP and gasoline prices–read The Real Economy
In this issue of The Real Economy, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas reviews leading indicators of economic activity as the United States heads into the late innings of this current business cycle. … READ MORE >