Economics

The U.S. economy has slowed over the past three months and hiring eased along with it. The economy generated only 20,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate declined to 3.8 percent due to a combination of special one-time factors, a government shutdown and the likely pulling back of hiring by companies facing heightened uncertainty about the direction of the domestic and global economies amid sustained international trade tensions. … READ MORE >

The British government appears to be on a course moving toward a deal to exit the European Union following critical votes on March 12. Our base case is what we would call the “extend and pretend” scenario: the government will likely ask for an extension of Article 50 until mid-to-late June of this year from a scheduled departure of March 29. … READ MORE >

The 2018 total trade deficit exploded to $621 billion, up 12.5 percent as imports increased 2.1 percent and exports declined by 1.9 percent. The deficit in goods merchandise soared to 891.2 billion, the highest on record in the history of the economy. … READ MORE >

Real GDP growth in the U.S. economy continues to point to a return to below-2 percent growth during the next two years, according to a report in the February edition of The Real Economy. … READ MORE >

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.6 percent growth rate during the final three months of 2018 on the back of a 2.8 percent increase in personal consumption bolstered by a blowout 5.9 percent rise in purchases of durables and an unsustainable buildup in inventories, in addition to a 13.1 …  … READ MORE >

Does a flattening yield curve signal  an impending recession? Read the February edition of The Real Economy. … READ MORE >

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reaffirmed his policy outlook for the United States on Tuesday, which implies a slower pace of growth linked to increasing headwinds related to policy and global economic issues.  … READ MORE >

What do the slowing economy and the ongoing trade dispute with China mean for middle market companies in the U.S.? RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas recently sat down with Kathryn Mulligan of ACG Global’s Middle Market Growth magazine for a podcast that looks at these issues, along with economic …  … READ MORE >

A confluence of factors is conspiring to lay the groundwork for conditions increasingly threatening an end to the current business cycle. … READ MORE >