The aggregate complexity of the supply chains for the 50 largest firms in the S&P 500 Index by revenue is fully nine times more complex than in 2009, a stunning 16% compounded annual growth rate. … READ MORE >
Economics
Market minute: Is the fight against PCE inflation like waiting for Godot?
The January PCE inflation report, to be released Friday, will most likely show a 0.3% top-line increase on the month and a 2.5% increase from one year ago. … READ MORE >
Market minute: The impact of China’s ailing property markets
The Chinese Real Estate Climate Index, released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, stands at 92.78, well below its historical average of 99.47. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Complacency in markets understates growing risk
Several measures of risk point to increasing complacency in financial markets despite the possibility of rising interest rates, changing trade and fiscal policies, and rising inflation. … READ MORE >
Volatility in markets: Hedging risk in an era of growing uncertainty
It is clear that volatility in interest rates, bond yields and foreign exchange markets will accelerate and that firms will need to consider ways to hedge that volatility. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Rebar prices and dying disinflation
Economists have stepped up their research to ascertain if disinflation has ended and how that affects the risk matrix around the economy. … READ MORE >
Initial claims rise slightly as federal layoffs and wildfire impact was muted
The number of initial claims for jobless benefits rose slightly to 219,000 last week, close to our forecast and the pre-pandemic average of 218,000. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Soft economic landing at risk
Businesses, and the economy overall, face uncertainty amid the regime change in the global economy. … READ MORE >
Housing starts plunge amid severe weather and elevated mortgage rates
The one-time seasonal factors that contributed to the decline should subside. Permits for new buildings and homes held up in January, rising by 0.1%. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Canadian dollar remains under duress
Should higher tariffs on Canada announced by the United States take effect, we would expect the value of the loonie to continue depreciating against the dollar. … READ MORE >