In this month’s issue of The Real Economy, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas assesses the rising risks of delayed trade agreements on middle market businesses and takes a closer look at the impact of steel and aluminum tariffs. … READ MORE >
Economics
Policy options to boost economy may be limited in a post-Brexit world (updated)
It remains to be seen whether Britain’s impending departure from the European Union will be “hard” or “soft.” Either way, it is time to start thinking about the post-Brexit economic environment. … READ MORE >
RSM’s Brusuelas tells CNBC less than zero chance of Fed rate hike in 2019
RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas on Tuesday discussed the Federal Reserve’s economic policy plan for 2019 with CNBC’s Steve Liesman. Brusuelas says there’s a less than zero chance the Fed will raise rates in the remainder of the year. … READ MORE >
RSM’s Joe Brusuelas talks GDP and economic outlook with Bloomberg radio
Despite a slowing economy, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas tells Bloomberg radio that “a recession is just not in the cards this year” unless the administration or the Federal Reserve “makes a major mistake.” … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases on promise of soft departure from EU
Probability for a hard Brexit is falling, data from RSM’s proprietary Brexit Stress Index shows. The index eased to .41 from .71. … READ MORE >
Economic risk tied to closing the U.S.-Mexico border
A sustained hard closure of the U.S. border with Mexico would trigger a recession in both the United States and Mexico within six months. The automotive sector, in particular, is vulnerable. … READ MORE >
March jobs report: Payrolls rise, but wage growth cools
The U.S. March employment report should allay fears of a 2019 recession as the unemployment rate held at 3.8 percent and the economy generated 196,000 new jobs on top of an upward revision of 13,000 to the February estimate, bringing the total change in employment to 209,000. … READ MORE >
Brexit and the middle market: What comes next?
RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas gives an update on the outlook for middle market companies following the UK’s planned departure from the European Union. … READ MORE >
US employment report preview: modest rebound as risks to outlook rise
We expect this Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report to show 155,000 jobs were added in March with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.8 percent. Slowing economic activity during the first quarter places downside risk on our top-line employment growth forecast. … READ MORE >
U.S. February retail sales point to weak Q1 household spending
Soft top-line and underlying core retail sales in February point to persistent weak household spending in the first quarter of the year. … READ MORE >