Consumers face the possibility of double-digit increases in many grocery items given the quantity of fruit and vegetables imported from those two countries. … READ MORE >
Economics
U.S. tariffs and their impact on growth and inflation
While it is too early to quantify the tariffs’ overall impact, a rough estimate implies between a 0.5% and 0.75% drag on growth this year and a one-time 0.6% increase in prices. … READ MORE >
Defense buildup in Europe points to a broader fiscal realignment
The financial implications of higher European defense spending implies that a broader fiscal realignment could take place. That is what is behind the rising equity valuations and the rise in the benchmark German 10-year yield. … READ MORE >
Market minute: The volatility smile in a time of trade disruption
One way to understand the financial impact of policy uncertainty is to look at the implied volatility of important bilateral currency pairs. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing prices rise in February amid higher tariffs
The prices paid subindex in the ISM manufacturing report rose to 62.4 in February, the highest level since June 2022, from 54.9 in January. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Credit availability and consumer expectations
Despite a strong jobs market and rising real wages, expectations around the provision of credit remain low. … READ MORE >
January PCE index: Strong income gains amid elevated inflation
Underlying inflation appears to have flattened out near 2.5% on an annual basis with service sector costs rising at a 3.4% rate. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Rising short-term inflation expectations
But given the general uncertainty around trade policy, one should begin looking more closely at short-term inflation expectations, which have been on the rise. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims rise as durable goods data is mixed
While the government layoffs contributed to the increase, new filings for jobless benefits in Washington accounted for only about 2,000 of the 22,000 overall increase. … READ MORE >
Market minute: The growing complexity of U.S. supply chains
The aggregate complexity of the supply chains for the 50 largest firms in the S&P 500 Index by revenue is fully nine times more complex than in 2009, a stunning 16% compounded annual growth rate. … READ MORE >