This is what a soft landing looks like. Through November this year, the American economy has produced nearly 2.6 million jobs as inflation has eased from 6.4% to 3.2%, all while the unemployment rate has remained below 4%. This is not a recession but instead is a sustained expansion amid labor ... READ MORE >
Economics
FOMC preview and the logic of Fed rate cuts in 2024
After nearly two years of raising the federal funds rate to restore price stability, the Federal Reserve is poised to all but declare that campaign to be over at its meeting next week. While the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to keep its policy statement largely unchanged, that statement ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain resilient
Initial jobless claims inched up slightly to 220,000 last week, remaining within the pre-pandemic level, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. Claims have hovered around this level for quite some time, continuing to suggest a strong labor market that should support further growth in the fourth ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds at 5% as excess demand is stomped out
In an acknowledgment of the economy's surprise contraction in the third quarter, the Bank of Canada on Wednesday shifted its tone on monetary policy from hawkish to neutral as it held its policy rate steady at 5 per cent. A series of gradual rate cuts from the current 5% is in order starting in April ... READ MORE >
Job openings fall to lowest level since 2021, signaling Fed pivot
Job openings came in much lower than expected in October, continuing the declining trend that began early last year. Along with a downward revision to September's data, the labor market is now the most balanced it has been since 2021. With 8.7 million job openings in October, the ... READ MORE >
U.S. economic outlook: Expansion continues into 2024
Solid consumer spending driven by real personal income gains and sustained private investment will underscore a steady pace of growth at or near the 1.8% long-run rate in the United States in 2024. We expect that policy tailwinds from both the fiscal and monetary authorities will set the stage for ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector in U.S. contracts in November
The manufacturing sector contracted for the second month in a row in November as lower overall demand and persistent labor shortages took their toll, the Institute for Supply Management reported on Friday. The overall index stayed unchanged at 46.7%, implying a decline. Any figure below 48.7% indicates ... READ MORE >
Canada’s unemployment rises to 5.8%, adding to case for rate cuts
Canada added 25,000 jobs in November as its unemployment rate climbed to 5.8%, its highest level since January 2022, Statistics Canada reported on Friday. Together with the weak third-quarter gross domestic product report on Thursday, November’s jobs data adds more evidence to the argument for the Bank ... READ MORE >
Canada’s economy contracted more than expected, suggesting a pivot on rates
Canada’s economy contracted more than expected in the third quarter, suggesting that the Bank of Canada might soon pivot to cutting rates, as early as April, to avoid a deeper recession than needed. Canada’s gross domestic product declined by 0.3 per cent in the third quarter and by 1.1 per cent on an ... READ MORE >
Inflation slows again, pointing to another rate pause
Inflation in October fell to its slowest pace in more than a year, solidifying the case for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at its next meeting in two weeks. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation metric, was unchanged on the month, ... READ MORE >