Manufacturing continued to pull back in November, with the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index remaining at 1.3 standard deviations below the level that would be considered normal. Although we think that the manufacturing sector has bottomed, any signs of an improvement have abated. A turn toward ... READ MORE >
Economics
As Canada pledges to restrain spending, it confronts a housing crisis
With Canada’s debt and interest payments rising, the federal government pledged this week to exercise restraint in spending. The announcement, which came Tuesday in the government's Fall Economic Statement, comes amid rising pressure for Canada to avoid fueling inflation with more spending, especially ... READ MORE >
Durable goods and jobless claims offer a mixed picture of the economy
The impact of elevated interest rates continued to show up in the business equipment spending data, which came in lower than expected in the Commerce Department's data released on Wednesday. Overall orders for durable goods fell by 5.4% in October, led by a 49.6% decline in nondefense aircraft because ... READ MORE >
Canada sees disinflation as gasoline prices ease
Canada’s consumer price index in October speaks loud and clear: Disinflation is here, and no more rate hikes by the Bank of Canada are needed. Inflation fell to 3.1% on a year-over-year basis, according to Statistics Canada on Tuesday. On a monthly basis, prices fell by 0.1%. The plunge is largely ... READ MORE >
U.S. existing home sales plunged to their lowest level since 2010
Sales of existing homes in the United States extended their slump for the fifth consecutive month, primarily because of elevated mortgage rates that have dampened both demand and supply. Read more of RSM's insights on real estate and the middle market. In October, sales of existing homes dropped to ... READ MORE >
Industrial production posts biggest drop this year amid strikes
Industrial production dropped by more than expected in October as the United Auto Workers strike was felt in the economy. Production of motor vehicle parts fell by 10%, marking the biggest drop since the beginning of the pandemic. The industrial production index declined by 0.6% on the month, according ... READ MORE >
Retail sales and producer inflation fall in October
Government data for October's retail sales and producer inflation has raised the probability of a soft landing by a significant margin. While sales slowed, the data came in higher than expected. When considered with an upward revision to September's reading, October's retail sales indicated ... READ MORE >
U.S. October consumer price index: Further evidence of disinflation
If one was looking for evidence of a soft landing and a sustained economic expansion, look no further than the October consumer price index. Disinflation inside the October consumer price index caused by falling commodity, oil and gasoline prices resulted in no increase in inflation on the month ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls to lowest level since May
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped unexpectedly in November to the lowest level since May as inflation concerns mounted. But the market and the Federal Reserve should be able to look through those surprises that were largely a short-lived reaction to elevated gasoline ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims ease amid broader signs of a softening labor market
Even as initial jobless claims have stayed relatively steady recently despite major strikes, there are longer-term signs that the labor market is softening. New filings for jobless claims inched down by 3,000 to 217,000 last week, up from 200,000 last month. But continuing claims—a measure of ... READ MORE >