Natural gas accounts for roughly 30% of the energy used domestically, and the U.S. is now the largest global exporter of LNG. … READ MORE >
Economics
Solow Residual: Total factor productivity and the U.S. economy
A recent study by the San Francisco Federal Reserve found that total factor productivity grew by a robust 4.99% on the most recent quarter after adjusting for factors such as labor, capital, utilization and worked hours. … READ MORE >
Geopolitical tensions and risks to the inflation outlook
Just as inflation appeared to be coming under control in recent months, rising tensions in the Middle East have shaken this view and now represent the major risk to our economic and inflation outlooks. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored
The Federal Reserve’s five-year inflation forward breakeven rate—a closely watched measure of inflation expectations—stands at 2.3%, below the cyclical peak of 2.67% posted on April 19, 2022. … READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales fall in January as holiday hangover sets in
In a break from recent years, ,American consumers began the year on a weak note as retail sales fell 0.8% on a monthly basis in January, according to Census Bureau data. … READ MORE >
CPI: Fed to remain patient as real wages rise 1.4%
January’s data shows that inflation is continuing to ease even as wages increase on an inflation-adjusted basis—an undeniably positive development. … READ MORE >
Canada’s job market exceeded expectations in January, adding 37,000 jobs
Nearly two years into a cycle of steep interest rate increases and after half a year with the policy rate at 5%, the economy added 37,000 jobs in January, far exceeding expectations. … READ MORE >
Revising our 2024 inflation outlook: Moving back to a 2% target
We expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in June, and that the central bank will reduce its policy rate four times this year, by 25 basis points each. … READ MORE >
Canada financial conditions update: Stabilization and recovery
Canada’s financial conditions remain underwater for now, signaling slow growth in the first and second quarters of the year after a contraction last year in the third and fourth quarters. … READ MORE >
Fed survey shows further improvement in financial conditions
The worst of monetary tightening for the financial market may be behind us, according to the latest quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey released by the Federal Reserve … READ MORE >