There are growing signs that inflation is retreating while the labor market remains healthy. Absent another shock, the Federal Reserve is likely to ease up on its rate increases as these dynamics take hold. Even a pause in rate hikes would most likely guide the economy toward a mild downturn rather ... READ MORE >
Economics
Canadian economic outlook: Defying expectations
The Canadian economy has shown remarkable resilience this year, defying expectations of a downturn amid elevated inflation and rising interest rates. In our updated economic forecast, we have downgraded the probability of a recession in Canada over the next 12 months to 60%, from 75%. A 40% ... READ MORE >
Canada’s job market slows as unemployment rate hits 5.5%
Even though the number of jobs overall in Canada was little changed as the economy lost 6,000 positions in July, the labour market is showing signs of losing momentum. Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 5.5%, the third consecutive increase for the first time since March 2020, the onset of the ... READ MORE >
U.S. July jobs report: Gradual and orderly cooling in the labor market
After a lengthy period of outsized gains, the American labor market is now cooling in a gradual and orderly fashion in line with the Federal Reserve’s goals, which points to a growing probability of a soft landing for the economy. The 187,000 net change in total employment in July, which was ... READ MORE >
Service sector growth eases in July
The service sector grew more slowly in July as it continued to show resilience despite recession concerns. The Institute for Supply Management's index for services inched down to 52.7 in July from 53.9 in June, indicating expansion for the seventh straight month. Underneath the top-line number, the ... READ MORE >
Fed survey of loan officers shows rising impact of higher interest rates
The Federal Reserve’s latest survey of bank loan officers confirms that the dampening effect of monetary-policy tightening on borrowing and lending continued in the second quarter. This implies that the residual impact of interest rate increases and the banking turmoil that engulfed local and regional ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: A continued decline in July
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index moved sideways in July as manufacturing firms in four of the five Federal Reserve regions again reported outright declines in activity as well as declines in new orders. Only the New York region reported increased activity and a rise in new orders, and ... READ MORE >
New data points to further economic slowdown and disinflation
Economic data released on Tuesday suggested that the economy is continuing to slow as the labor market loosened, price gains eased and manufacturing contracted in June and July. Indicators came in lower than expected, implying that while the economy has remained resilient, it has lost some ... READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index moving toward neutral
Having weathered turmoil in the banking sector and the standoff over the debt ceiling, financial conditions in the United States are easing, moving toward levels of risk normally priced into financial assets. But while signals from the equity market are positive, the bond market continues to ... READ MORE >
Where are we going to find the workers? A look at child care and the workforce
Recent changes in public policy are beginning to affect the domestic economy. One sign is the strong increase in manufacturing construction linked to the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the CHIPS and Science Act. But with the unemployment rate at 3.6% and the ... READ MORE >