The Employment Cost Index—the Federal Reserve's closely watched metric on wage growth—increased by 1.0% in the second quarter, the slowest rate since June 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. That brought the 12-month increase of overall employment compensation down to ... READ MORE >
Economics
Business orders for equipment rise despite higher borrowing costs
Business investment on productivity-enhancing equipment continues to be one of the brightest spots across the U.S. economy. Encouraged by spending on infrastructure and manufacturing, along with the promise of artificial intelligence, businesses were not afraid to spend more on capital goods, ... READ MORE >
Resilience defined as American economy continues to defy expectations
Looking for a working definition of resilience? Take a look at the American economy, which expanded at a 2.4% seasonally adjusted annualized rate in the second quarter (2.6% on a year-ago basis). Driving that growth was a durable American household, which boosted consumption by 1.6% between ... READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: The time for an end to rate hikes has arrived
The Federal Open Market Committee increased its policy rate to a range between 5.25% and 5.5% at its meeting on Wednesday. While the September, November and December meetings remain live options for more rate increases, we think that Wednesday’s hike is the final step in a two-year effort to ... READ MORE >
Surging manufacturing construction: Industrial policy and U.S. semiconductors
For the past half century, the political economy of the United States has rested upon a foundation of free markets and trade, and a federal government that refrains from picking winners and losers when it comes to domestic investment. The exceptions to that rule have revolved around national security ... READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits drop in June as rates surge
Housing starts and permits dropped in June after surging in May amid market volatility because of interest rate increases. New residential starts fell by 8% on the month, while permits for new buildings declined by 3.7%, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. The drop came as mortgage ... READ MORE >
Mixed signals from retail sales and industrial production data ahead of Fed meeting
Underlying retail sales showed a strong increase in June while industrial production posted another sharp drop, giving mixed signals on the health of the economy heading toward a pivotal period for rate hike decisions. Both data points, released by the government on Tuesday, are key factors ... READ MORE >
U.S. second-half economic outlook: Muddling through
The resilient American economy refuses to go gentle into that good night. The evidence is growing stronger: A rapid decline in inflation amid robust hiring and an unemployment rate that stands at 3.6% despite a steep rise in interest rates. That reality, reflected by what looks to be ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment highest in nearly two years
Consumer sentiment jumped to its highest level since September 2021 on the heels of continuing disinflation and an improved view of household finances, according to the University of Michigan's survey on Friday. The top-line sentiment index increased to 72.6 in July, from 64.4 ... READ MORE >
Job and producer inflation data raises soft-landing hope
Data on jobless claims and producer inflation came in lower than forecast on Thursday, giving mixed signals on the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory. The Fed is heading toward a pivotal period when disinflation and a still-resilient economy are giving more hope on the probability of a soft ... READ MORE >