Initial jobless claims last week were unchanged at 264,000, remaining at their highest level since November 2021 as the robust labor market showed signs of softening. The data, reported by the Labor Department on Thursday, suggested that the previous spike in new filings for jobless benefits ... READ MORE >
Economics
U.S. charitable donations fell last year
Donations to charity fell to $499 billion last year, a 3.4% decrease from 2021, according to a report released on Wednesday by Giving USA. The decline was even more stark—10.5%—when accounting for inflation. Every listed giving source declined in inflation-adjusted giving last year, with the ... READ MORE >
Midyear global outlook: Slowdown followed by recovery as India leads the way
The global economy is in a precarious state these days, with the resilience that was exhibited earlier this year expected to fade. While India and the United States remain areas of growth, the European Union appears to have slipped into recession and China is not experiencing the strong ... READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits spike in May as sentiment improves
Housing starts and permits came in much stronger than expected in May as the housing market continued to improve off its low in 2022. The upside surprise raises our forecast for gross domestic product in the second quarter from a 1.5% increase to 1.8%. There were 1.6 million new housing ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment gains on improving inflation expectations
Consumer sentiment increased to 63.9 in June, the highest since March as views on current and future economic conditions improved, according to the University of Michigan index released on Friday. While the index has bounced off the bottom of last June, it remains much lower than the pre-pandemic ... READ MORE >
Retail sales rise more than expected amid labor market softening
Retail sales rose more than expected in May, pointing to continued resilience in spending that might push the long-awaited recession further down the road. The strong sales figure, though, was reported as layoffs continued to increase last week, government data released on Thursday ... READ MORE >
Fed pauses rate hikes while signaling a tightening bias
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday kept its policy rate in a range between 5% and 5.25% while signaling that it will most likely hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at least twice before the end of the year. This implies a possible policy peak of 5.75% later this year. ... READ MORE >
Inflation relief in the pipeline as food, gas and service prices ease
Top-line U.S. inflation is moving back toward levels where it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to pause in its efforts to restore price stability. With underlying inflation hovering around 3% and 4%, the Fed is well positioned to keep its policy rate steady this week with the confidence ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims spike to highest since 2021
New filings for jobless benefits spiked by 28,000 last week, another sign of a softening labor market. Total new filings rose to 261,000, the highest since October 2021, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. There were no distortions to the report like the fraudulent claims in ... READ MORE >
Interest rate outlook: Debt ceiling standoff raised the cost of doing business
One cost of the debt ceiling crisis that is lost among most political actors and the public is that the U.S. Treasury will need to refill its coffers. That need to sell debt—$1.1 trillion of it—along with a strong probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike or two during the third ... READ MORE >