Three years after the pandemic upended the American economy, U.S. household balance sheets in general are in good shape. Assets far outstrip liabilities, with household net assets surging over the past decade to nearly $150 trillion last year. Underneath this strength, though, there is a ... READ MORE >
Economics
Economy added 339,000 jobs in blowout May employment report
The labor market and the economy it supports will just not go gently into that good night despite policy efforts to cool both. Historic inflation and interest rate shocks have not yet derailed a robust labor market that has averaged an increase of 283,000 jobs over the past three months. ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims inch up, yet labor market remains tight
Initial jobless claims inched up by 2,000 last week to 232,000, slightly below expectations, according to the Labor Department on Thursday. The data pointed to more softening in the labor market based on our preferred metric of the long-term trend—the 13-week moving average. But the upward ... READ MORE >
Job openings exceed 10 million as labor market imbalance widens
Job openings came in stronger than expected for April as the imbalance in the labor market widened, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday The latest data comes at an important juncture, two weeks ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated June ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Downturn continues
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index dropped by two standard deviations below normal in May as firms reported decreases in both current shipments and new orders. This is consistent with the modest year-over-year decline in industrial production. Our index is based on surveys of manufacturing firms ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence falls to six-month low
Consumer confidence inched down in May to the lowest level in six months as sentiment on both the current economy and expectations weakened. More important, labor market sentiment fell to the lowest level in two years, signaling a potential significant slowdown in May's job gains. More data on the jobs ... READ MORE >
The debt ceiling agreement and the financial health of the U.S.
President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached an agreement over the weekend to lift the debt ceiling by more than $4 trillion until 2025, narrowly avoiding the financial turmoil that would have ensued following a default. Because of the approximately 10% increase in fiscal year 2023 ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims edge up but fraud spurs big downward revisions
Initial jobless claims underwent a significant downward revision after a spike in fraudulent claims led to a distortion in the data. New filings for jobless benefits released by the Labor Department on Thursday increased slightly by 4,000 last week, but the more noteworthy change was a ... READ MORE >
Fitch puts U.S. on ratings watch negative
The announcement on Wednesday that Fitch Ratings had placed the United States AAA credit rating on “Rating Watch Negative” is the latest sign that the policy brinkmanship over raising the nation's debt ceiling is extracting a growing price on the U.S. economy and jeopardizing well-functioning ... READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index: Debt ceiling standoff to cause volatility
U.S. financial conditions remain a drag on overall economic activity. Our composite RSM US Financial Conditions Index remained at 0.9 standard deviations below neutral on Friday, corresponding to higher levels of risk than would normally be priced into securities. As investors await a ... READ MORE >