New filings for jobless benefits fell last week to 242,000 from 264,000, a sharp 8.3% drop, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The fall off came after fraudulent claims in Massachusetts—which were confirmed by state officials—had inflated the top-line number in the prior weeks. On a ... READ MORE >
Economics
About that recession: Resilience now, risks ahead
We have made the case for some time that the “R” word that best describes the American real economy is resilience, not recession. Despite elevated inflation and interest rates, as well as tightening financial conditions and softening demand for loans, the economy has chugged along, thanks ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment drops as inflation expectations rise
Consumer sentiment in April plunged to its lowest level since November as views on both current economic conditions and expectations worsened, the University of Michigan reported on Friday. The top-line sentiment index dropped to 57.7 from 63.5 in April. The current conditions and ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims and producer inflation show mixed results
Initial jobless claims rose by 9.1% for the week ending May 6, to 264,000, the most since 2021, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The rise came as the Labor Department also reported the producer prices bounced back in April, in part because of favorable comparisons to surging prices of ... READ MORE >
Inflation remains sticky in April, rising by 4.9% over a year ago
Strong demand for transportation and gasoline in April bolstered by rising incomes and excess savings showed that inflation, while easing, is likely to remain sticky for the foreseeable future despite falling to 4.9% in April from 9.1% last June. April’s increase in the consumer price index ... READ MORE >
What would happen if the government defaults on its debt?
Another debt ceiling crisis is approaching, and it is in no one’s best interest. Policy brinksmanship over lifting the debt ceiling and the threat of default it brings is increasing the cost of doing business and carries far more risk than is commonly acknowledged. At its core, the stand-off ... READ MORE >
Fed survey shows a notable decline in loan demand
Further evidence of tightened lending conditions and a potential credit crunch can be seen in the notable decline in demand for credit by large and middle market firms, a new survey of loan officers from the Federal Reserve shows. This decline will affect the real economy in the near term ... READ MORE >
Economic headwinds and your business: A webinar from RSM US and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
American middle market businesses are facing a rapidly changing economic and political landscape, from raising the nation's debt ceiling to tightening credit conditions and persistent inflation. How to make sense of it all? Join RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of ... READ MORE >
Is a debt-ceiling crisis coming? Money markets are saying yes.
Risks around to the economic outlook linked to a looming debt-ceiling crisis have been in the market for some time. This pricing in of risk has become particularly apparent now that both Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office have put Congress on ... READ MORE >
Canada added 41,400 jobs in April amid resilient labor market
Canada’s labor market remained resilient in April despite increasing recession fears. All key numbers released by Statistics Canada on Friday came in stronger than expected—maybe too strong for the Bank of Canada’s comfort as it tries to tame inflation. The jobs report should raise the chance of a rate ... READ MORE >