We have made the case over the past few months that resilience rather than recession is a more apt description of the American economy. The net change in employment in the April jobs report of 253,000 reported by the Labor Department on Friday reflects that resilience. In addition, the ... READ MORE >
Economics
Initial jobless claims post largest increase in six weeks
Jobless claims last week rose back up to 242,000 after a brief one-week drop, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The increase underscored the upward trend in new filings for jobless benefits as the labor market continued to soften. New claims have remained consistently above the pre-pandemic ... READ MORE >
Fed hikes rate a quarter point while creating framework for a pause
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate for the tenth consecutive time on Wednesday, pushing the federal funds rate to a range between 5% and 5.25%. The 25 basis-point increase was accompanied by changes in the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement that imply a possible pause at ... READ MORE >
Job openings fell in March as the labor market softened
Job openings fell to 9.6 million in March from almost 10 million in February, a clear sign that the labor market is softening as the economy slows down. Still, there were 1.6 openings available for each unemployed worker on the month, down only slightly from 1.7 in February, according to data ... READ MORE >
Canadian recession tracker: Preparing for landing
As the Bank of Canada tries to tame inflation and simultaneously guide the economy to a soft landing, most market participants are skeptical that it can pull off the feat. After months of steep interest rate increases, the higher borrowing costs are only beginning to be felt in Canada's real ... READ MORE >
Economic implications of further turmoil in the banking sector
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation seized First Republic Bank overnight and then sold a select portion of its assets and liabilities to JPMorgan as it imposed an orderly wind down of the troubled regional bank. The action should bolster confidence in the ability of the federal ... READ MORE >
Tighter financial conditions threaten Canada’s growth
After two years of whipsaw change, Canada’s financial and commodity markets have entered a period of relative calm in recent months. Volatility in the stock market has eased, oil prices have declined and prices of raw materials have largely held steady. Even the elevated volatility in the bond ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Slowdown continues into April
April marks a full year of contraction in the manufacturing sector. The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index, based on surveys conducted by five regional Federal Reserve banks, continued to signal a downturn in the production of goods during April. Overall manufacturing activity remains at ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Is 10 the magic number?
We expect the Federal Reserve to hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5% to 5.25% at its May 3 meeting, with changes in the Federal Open Market Committee statement that imply a possible pause in the rate hike campaign and a bias toward future tightening if inflation ... READ MORE >
Fed’s gauges on wages and inflation seal the deal on another rate hike
The Federal Reserve's key labor costs metric for the first quarter came in hotter than expected Friday, helping to seal the deal on the central bank's 10th consecutive rate hike in May, while raising the probability of another one in June. The Employment Cost Index rose 1.2% in the quarter, and the ... READ MORE >