Growth in the first quarter expanded at a 1.1% annualized pace and by 1.6% on a year-ago basis as a modest inventory correction—a net drag of 2.26%—and a large pullback in business investment—a net drag of 2.34%—offset the robust 3.7% increase in overall household consumption. This data, ... READ MORE >
Economics
Business spending on equipment falls more than expected
Orders and shipments of core capital goods that exclude defense and aircraft spending, a key measure of private business investment, both fell by 0.4% in March, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. It is now clear that the nonresidential component of private investment has caught up ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence drops to lowest level since July 2022
Consumer confidence in April dipped to the lowest level since last July, driven by the deterioration in economic expectations as recession concerns mount. The top-line confidence index in April fell to 101.3 from 104.0 in March, while the expectations index dropped sharply to 68.1 from 74.0, ... READ MORE >
Growth, employment and identifying the end of a business cycle
Growth during the first quarter most likely expanded at a 2.35% pace based on our RSM economic forecast in contrast with the 2% consensus. This growth, though, is not likely to last. Given the emerging consensus among economists that the economy will fall into a recession this year, a ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims rise amid labor market slowdowns
New filings for jobless benefits rose for the third straight week to a near 18-month high, adding more signs of a slowdown in the labor market, one of the last defenses against a recession. New claims, which are a proxy for layoffs, increased by 2.1% to 245,000 for the week ending April ... READ MORE >
Why the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, and will stay that way
Recent talk that China, India and Russia are settling purchases of oil in non-dollar denominations has generated speculation that the dollar’s days as the world’s reserve currency are ending. This is nothing new. There were similar discussion during the financial crisis 15 years ago and, ... READ MORE >
Lower-than-expected retail sales raise recession probability
Retail sales dropped for the second month in a row in March as demand for goods and food services continued to ease, suggesting the end of the business cycle. If interest rate increases take six to 12 months to be felt in the economy—the accepted wisdom before the pandemic—then it is likely ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims and producer prices point to a further slowdown
New data on the labor market and inflation released on Thursday continued to show a slowing economy as it heads to a likely recession. For the Federal Reserve, that data bolstered the case that it will pause its rate increases after one final hike in this cycle on May 3. Whether to have that ... READ MORE >
March inflation data points to a Fed rate peak in May
The inflation outlook improved in March because of a mix of year-over-year base effects and a significant decline in energy prices, all of which caused the top-line reading to decline to 5% from 6% previously. The core estimate, which excludes food and gasoline, eased to 5.6%, while the ... READ MORE >
After flush years, households show a reluctance to borrow
A pillar of the American economy in the recovery from the pandemic has been household balance sheets, which have been bolstered by a robust labor market and nominal income growth. But now, with the prospect of tighter lending standards and reduced spending caused by the recent banking ... READ MORE >