The U.S. March employment report indicated that total jobs increased by 236,000, illustrating that hiring remains strong, albeit at a slower pace. The Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday report points toward easing concerns of a wage price spiral that underscores the direction of monetary policy as the Fed ... READ MORE >
Economics
Canada jobs report tops forecasts, showing resilience amid recession fears
Canada’s March jobs report came out hotter than expected, adding more pressure on the Bank of Canada’s fight against inflation. While we don't see another rate hike in 2023 for now, there were not a lot of reasons from Thursday's Statistics Canada report that suggest we will see rate cuts either. The ... READ MORE >
Service sector growth weakens in March
Service sector activities grew at a much slower pace in March after posting solid growth in the first two months of the year, the Institute for Supply Management reported on Wednesday. The slowdown came amid increasing signs of a pullback in overall demand as tightening monetary policy, ... READ MORE >
Job openings and factory orders soften amid recession concerns
Job openings and factory orders came in lower than expected on Tuesday, continuing to show signs of softening economic demand that should work in the Federal Reserve's favor in fighting inflation. When the new data is combined with softer economic data released recently, the risk of a ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing continues to show recession signs
The manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth month in a row in March, according to new data released by the Institute for Supply Management on Monday. The pace of the decline accelerated as the impact of steep interest rate hikes continued to weigh on overall demand. It has become evident that ... READ MORE >
What the surprise oil production cut by OPEC+ means
Oil markets are reeling after OPEC+ said in a surprise announcement on Sunday that it would cut up to 1.15 million barrels a day in its target production starting next month. The announcement comes on top of Russia’s intentions to reduce its own production by 500,000 barrels per day from ... READ MORE >
Bank deposit carousel continues as investors search for yield
Outflows of deposits from small banks paused last week, while outflows from large banks increased. This implies that funds continue to flow out of traditional banking and into money market funds or other alternative investments as investors search for yield. While it is too soon to declare the ... READ MORE >
Fed’s key gauges of inflation soften in February
Key inflation, spending and income data released on Friday should make the Federal Reserve's so-called dovish rate hike of 25 basis points in March a lot more reasonable by now. It also reaffirmed our call that the end of the hiking cycle is only a couple of months away. While the data ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims inch up while revised GDP shows softer growth
New filings for jobless benefits inched up to 198,000 last week from 191,000 the previous week, staying below the pre-pandemic level, according to government data released Thursday. Claims numbers have been consistently low recently, showing a resilient labor market where demand for labor ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Slowdown continues
There was little sign of improvement in U.S. manufacturing among the five areas surveyed in march by the Federal Reserve banks. According to the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index based on those surveys, manufacturing activity remains at 1.8 standard deviations below normal. That implies a ... READ MORE >