The soft rebound in May’s retail sales was good news, suggesting that the economy might reach a soft landing sooner than expected. … READ MORE >
Economics
U.S. gas prices poised to decline by 10% ahead of July 4
Because of supply conditions and easing demand, domestic gasoline prices peaked at $3.67 per gallon for regular on April 18 and have declined since then. They are poised to decline even further. … READ MORE >
The future of voluntary carbon markets: A pathway to corporate decarbonization
The Biden administration’s Voluntary Carbon Markets Joint Policy Statement and Principles are intended to bolster transparency and strengthen confidence in the markets. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls more than expected
Consumer sentiment dropped to 65.6 in June, a seven-month low, which was much less than expected with declining sentiment on personal finances as the focus, according to the University of Michigan survey. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation preview: From noise to norm, rate cuts are on the horizon
Following the release of the consumer price index and producer price index this week, we are now forecasting a 0.084% increase in the May personal consumption expenditures index, translating to a 2.6% increase on a year-over-year basis. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims jump as inflation continues to improve
The weekly initial jobless claims figure was the highest level in almost a year, nearing the threshold of 250,000 that in our view signals conditions for a possible recession. … READ MORE >
FOMC holds rates steady but is divided on their direction
Seven FOMC members supported one cut this year, eight supported two and four supported no cuts. Overall, the forecast projects a 5.125% rate later this year. … READ MORE >
U.S. consumer price index cools in May as gas and transportation costs decline
The encouraging May CPI data released by the Labor Department on Thursday is likely to be the first in a string of constructive inflation reports that will define policy normalization at the Fed. … READ MORE >
U.S. financial conditions update: A shift in structure and a new center of gravity
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index turned positive in January and has centered at 0,25 standard deviations above zero since March, indicating the normal level of risk priced into financial securities. … READ MORE >
Canada’s unemployment rate rises to 6.2 per cent, bolstering case for further rate cuts
Canada’s jobs report for May showed that the labour market continued to soften as the economy added 27,000 jobs and the unemployment rate inched up to 6.2%. … READ MORE >