Retail sales in the United States posted a stronger-than-expected rebound in January after two straight holiday months of disappointing declines. Sales increased by 3.0% on the month and by 2.3% if automobiles are excluded, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Evan after controlling for ... READ MORE >
Economics
Understanding the facts in the debt ceiling debate
As the stand-off over raising the nation’s debt ceiling drags on, a rational discussion of the issues at play has often been lost amid the political rhetoric. For example, who holds the debt? (Americans, mostly.) Is China the biggest foreign holder? (No, Japan is.) Is American financial stability ... READ MORE >
Inflation grew faster in January, bolstering the case for more rate hikes
Inflation accelerated in January, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates at its next two meetings. January’s Consumer Price Index increased by 0.5% on the month, rising from a 0.1% increase in December, and by 6.4% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of ... READ MORE >
Fed’s survey of loan officers points to caution in the middle market
Even as financial conditions have eased in recent months, helping to spur a rally in equity markets, one area of America’s real economy has been flashing warning signs: the commercial and industrial loan market. Demand for these loans, an important engine of growth, plunged last year as lending ... READ MORE >
Canada adds a robust 150,000 jobs in January as wage growth eases
The Canadian labor market continued to blow past expectations, adding 150,000 jobs in January despite mounting recession concerns, Statistics Canada reported on Friday. Robust job gains combined with the unemployment rate holding steady near a record low at 5% should push the expectations of a ... READ MORE >
Rising interest payments, deficits and the debt ceiling crisis
The mounting stand-off over raising the federal government’s debt ceiling has put a renewed focus on the rising cost of financing the nation’s debt. While these interest payments are rising quickly as the Federal Reserve raises rates to tame inflation, it’s important to have some perspective. As ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims rise, but remain below pre-pandemic level
New jobless claims increased for the first time in six weeks, yet they remained under the pre-pandemic level despite a significant recent increase in layoff announcements. New filings for unemployment benefits increased by 7.1% to 196,000 for the week ending Feb. 4, the Labor Department ... READ MORE >
Financial conditions ease as downturn in corporate debt issuance lingers
As the Federal Reserve has slowed the pace of its interest rate increases recently, financial conditions in the American economy have eased as well. The RSM US Financial Conditions Index has moved to only 0.4 standard deviations below normal as asset prices anticipate improved prospects for reduced ... READ MORE >
Blowout January jobs report likely exaggerates hiring
Seasonal noise always presents problems when estimating the January jobs picture at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the first employment estimate of the year serves as a useful reminder not to overinterpret one report. The blowout 517,000-job increase in total employment for January, ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain below the pre-pandemic level
New filings for jobless benefits continued to defy market expectations, falling to 183,000 last week from 186,000 a week earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday. New jobless claims, which are a proxy for layoffs, remained below the pre-pandemic level of 218,000 for the fifth week ... READ MORE >