This week the federal government will issue $366 billion in debt, much of which will be purchased by foreign investors. The combination of growth and interest rate differentials, as well as rapidly changing fiscal and trade policies that favor a stronger dollar and the purchase of dollar-denominated ... READ MORE >
Economics
NIH adopts new policy for funding research
The National Institutes of Health's announcement that it would slash funding that covers overhead costs in research to a 15% maximum poses a grave risk to basic medical research in the United States. This policy, effective immediately, puts at risk public and private organizations engaged in pioneering ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Inflation expectations at risk
Well-anchored inflation expectations, based on the Federal Reserve's credibility over the past five decades, played a large part in the central bank surviving the great price and interest rate shocks of 2021. But given the considerable policy uncertainty caused by the return of global trade ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment fell amid inflation concerns from trade war
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 67.8 in February, the lowest level since July, as sentiment of both current and future conditions deteriorated. The impact of recent announcements on tariffs was evident in the report as inflation expectations for the next 12 months spiked to ... READ MORE >
Job growth cools in January amid revisions to labor force estimate
The economic tailwind that has supported an average increase of 3.1% in household consumption since 2023 continued into January as robust demand for labor resulted in a 143,000 increase in total employment and an unemployment rate of 4%. The January jobs report, released on Friday, shows a resilient ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The rising concentration risk in equities
For the first time since the dot.com bust in 2001, the difference between the equity earnings yield on the forward-looking S&P 500 less the yield on the 10-year Treasury has declined into negative terrain. This is a function of the concentration in the largest technology names inside the S&P ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The divergent unemployment rates of foreign-born and native-born workers
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its jobs report for January. This month's report will take on added significance because it will include its annual benchmark revision and updated seasonal adjustment factors of the establishment survey, which includes nonfarm payrolls, employment, ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Trucking firms at risk amid trade tensions
As trade tensions have mounted in recent weeks, most of the focus has been on agriculture, autos and aviation, three industries that rely on integrated supply chains involving Mexico, Canada and China. Yet one area that should not be overlooked is trucking and transportation, which would take a hit ... READ MORE >
Labor demand cools in December
The significant drop in job openings in December extended the downward trend in labor demand toward normalization since the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in 2022. Job openings fell to 7.6 million from 8.2 million in November, near the pre-pandemic level and providing the Fed with more relief regarding ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Why productivity and workers hold the key to growth
To understand what is happening with interest rates and the global economy, we have made the case that nothing less than a regime change is taking place, characterized by scarce capital, insufficient aggregate supply, higher inflation and higher interest rates. Firms, as a result, will need to adjust ... READ MORE >