The slowdown in manufacturing continued into February, but at a slower pace, according to surveys conducted by regional Federal Reserve banks. … READ MORE >
Economics
January inflation and spending data implies more noise than trend
The Federal Reserve’s closely watched measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, continued to show strength in January, rising by 0.3% on the month and by 2.4% from a year ago. … READ MORE >
How real is the wealth effect in a bull market?
Using a back-of-the-envelope calculation, we estimate that the sharp rebound in equities last year contributed to an increase of roughly $900 billion in households’ stock wealth, or $288 billion in consumer spending. … READ MORE >
Softer economic data reaffirms prospect of a soft landing
Softer economic data reaffirms we are inching closer to a soft landing
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What would Keynes do? Russian assets and funding the war in Ukraine
One way to finance the Ukraine war: Use Russia’s foreign exchange reserves as collateral to raise private sector debt. John Maynard Keynes just might have approved. … READ MORE >
New home sales grew more slowly in January amid elevated mortgage rates
Sales of new homes grew 1.5% in January, much slower than the 7.2% increase in December, most likely because of elevated mortgage rates. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall to lowest in a month
New claims fell by 12,000 to 201,000 for the week ending Feb. 17, according to the Labor Department’s data on Thursday. … READ MORE >
Natural gas and the move toward energy self-sufficiency
Natural gas accounts for roughly 30% of the energy used domestically, and the U.S. is now the largest global exporter of LNG. … READ MORE >
Solow Residual: Total factor productivity and the U.S. economy
A recent study by the San Francisco Federal Reserve found that total factor productivity grew by a robust 4.99% on the most recent quarter after adjusting for factors such as labor, capital, utilization and worked hours. … READ MORE >
Geopolitical tensions and risks to the inflation outlook
Just as inflation appeared to be coming under control in recent months, rising tensions in the Middle East have shaken this view and now represent the major risk to our economic and inflation outlooks. … READ MORE >