Unfunded tax cuts, outlays on defense and infrastructure as well as rising inflation expectations are pushing global bond yields higher, which will put at risk private sector investment. … READ MORE >
Economics
Market Minute: Estimating tariff revenues on EU exports to the U.S.
Using Penn-Wharton’s tariff simulator one can estimate the revenue generation linked to a large tariff on all imports to the U.S. from the EU. … READ MORE >
Equipment orders slide in April, showing impact of tariffs
Even with some recent easing in tensions, uncertainty surrounding trade policy remains high. Business spending is likely to remain largely frozen in the months ahead. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising duration premium points to heightened risk in long-dated debt
The 30-year swap is pointing toward greater risk in U.S. Treasury funding as trade and fiscal policies suggest higher inflation, rising interest rates and growing government deficits to fund a large tax cut. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Financial conditions a modest drag on growth
We expect the cost of credit for businesses to be pressured higher as the risk of a slowdown increases. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: A widening U.S. 30-year/10-year spread points to long-term change
Now, as populist economics takes hold and globalization fades, nowhere is the new regime better illustrated than in the U.S. 30-year less 10-year Treasury spread in the bond market. … READ MORE >
Inflation falls in Canada as end of consumer carbon tax offsets other increases
Canada’s consumer price index (CPI) fell to 1.7% in April thanks to the removal of the consumer carbon price and lower crude oil prices. For now, price increases associated with U.S. tariffs seem to have been kept at bay. The end of the consumer carbon tax should continue to apply … … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Something’s got to give in financial markets
Now, as the impact of tariffs begins to hit consumers, it would not be surprising if investors push yields higher and the dollar lower. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Fiscal policy in the spotlight after U.S. credit rating downgrade
Following the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody’s from Aaa to Aa1, we expect a rising risk premium across the Treasury curve. … READ MORE >
Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and the rising term premium
Yields could very well rise in the near term with the 30-year Treasury note testing 5% and the 10-year approaching 4.5%. … READ MORE >