Consumer sentiment rose for the first time in five months, according to the University of Michigan’s survey in August. The increase is driven by the jump in expectations as consumer sentiment about the next 12 months look better. The topline sentiment index is up to 67.8 from 66.4 in July, with the ... READ MORE >
Economics
Robust July retail sales defy growth scare
While robust July retail sales numbers might come as a surprise given the various pressures on American consumers, the data was very well in line with our forecasts ahead of the Thursday data release from the Commerce Department. Further disinflation and 15 consecutive months of positive real wage growth ... READ MORE >
US July CPI: Further moderation in inflation as Fed prepares policy pivot
Inflation continued to moderate in July as both top-line and core inflation increased 0.2%; top-line inflation increased 2.9% from one year ago and core inflation advanced 3.2%. The internals of the report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday tend to suggest that there will be further ... READ MORE >
Producer prices grow slower than expected, adding evidence to support rate cut
A drop in July’s producer inflation suggests another month of favorable inflation data that should help seal the deal for a rate cut in September and more afterwards. The final demand inflation rose 0.1% in July and 2.2% from a year ago. Even better, the core component of the producer inflation number ... READ MORE >
Canada’s weak job market supports further rate cuts
Canada’s July jobs report spelled out the need for more rate cuts as the economy shed 2,800 jobs, according to data released Friday by Statistics Canada. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 6.4% as labour force participation fell in a challenging market. Some youth and women had stopped looking for ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fell 17,000 last week, easing growth concerns
The impact of Hurricane Beryl in Texas faded faster than expected in U.S. initial jobless claims data, helping push new claims to a four-week low of 233,000 for the week ending Aug. 3, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. The drop in new claims was much-needed good news, as the ... READ MORE >
Service sector bounces back in July, easing growth concerns
Few observers could have expected that the ISM service index would become the market’s savior this week, but that is what happened. The index rose to positive territory at 51.4 after dropping in June to 48.8, suggesting that some of the concerns over an imminent recession looked overblown. We remain ... READ MORE >
Notes on a classic market panic: Unwinding of the yen-based carry trade
The turmoil in global financial markets on Monday was long in coming but spurred by short-term pressures: the unwinding of the yen-based carry trade, where speculators and short-term investors borrow against the yen to purchase risk assets elsewhere. As these investors exited their positions in the ... READ MORE >
Job creation slows in July as unemployment increases to 4.3%
U.S. job growth slowed at an accelerated pace in July as 114,000 jobs were added and the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%. The higher jobless rate was driven by the addition of 420,000 people who entered the workforce looking to capture rising wages. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% ... READ MORE >
Productivity continues to climb as investments take hold
The rebound of labor productivity in the second quarter is another sign of why the economy will continue to be on strong footing despite growing concerns over a labor market slowdown. The second quarter’s labor productivity growth was 2.3%, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. Not only did the ... READ MORE >